Thursday, March 19, 2015

Young's Rocky 14/15 Season Highlights Lakers Free Agency Mistake


News broke yesterday that Nick Young knee injury is worse than originally thought and his season could be in jeopardy. The Lakers energetic scorer was revealed to have a small fracture in his knee cap, and while he won't need surgery to repair it the amount of rest required for it to heal as well as the time it would take to get back in shape suggests that Young's year is likely over, and that may not be a bad thing. Reality is that given the way the season has gone so far for Swaggy P (Young's alter-ego) shutting it down may well be what is best for everyone.

 Last season Young was one of the few bright spots for the struggling Lakers, providing timely scoring off the bench and an infectious smile that made him a favorite amongst teammates. Fans enjoyed his bravado as well. His ability to make seemingly impossible shots kept the Staples Center rocking even during a season in which the team set the franchise record for losses. Unfortunately Swaggy P has morphed into Swaggless P this season as he has proven incapable of duplicating last season's success.

 Young has also spent a large portion of the season on the bench with a variety of injuries, including the first 10 games of the season due to a torn ligament in his right (shooting) hand suffered while defending Kobe Bryant in practice. For a guy who specializes in scoring points a serious injury to a shooting hand can be difficult to recover from, and it could partially explain Young's struggles from the field this season.

 To dig deeper let's take a look at Young's stats from last season compared to this one (per 36 minutes):

Season Age FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS
2013-14 28 7.7 17.7 .435 2.7 7.0 .386 5.0 10.7 .468 4.7 5.7 .825 0.6 2.7 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.2 1.9 22.8
2014-15 29 6.3 17.1 .366 3.0 8.1 .369 3.3 9.0 .363 4.8 5.3 .892 0.6 2.8 3.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 1.6 20.3
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/19/2015.

 Looking at his numbers adjusted for minutes it's easy to see that when he has played this season Nick has produced at roughly the same level as he did last year, with the one major exception being that his field goal percentage has dropped significantly. Compounding the problem, Young doesn't really do much else aside from score, as he is worse-than-average as a passer, rebounder, and defender. His one NBA-level skill is scoring the basketball, and if he can't do that effectively then there isn't much reason for him to be on the court.

All of this brings us back to a question that had to be asked last summer: should the Lakers resign Nick Young? He had put up career numbers in a contract year, which can be a red flag. At the same time though he was the heart of the team and had been embraced by the fans and the community. Ultimately, the team made the decision that his scoring ability off the bench, positive attitude, and connection with the fanbase warranted awarding him a 4-year, $21.5 million deal with a player option in the final year.

 For Nick the deal has been an excellent one, as not only is he making millions of dollars but he has also increased his exposure tremendously by being one of the most visible players on one of the NBA's glamour franchises. He is dating rapper Iggy Azalea, has a legion of fans, and found himself side-by-side with Joel McHale on "The Soup" last week. Even his haircut is news, proving that life is good when you are a Laker.

 For the Lakers franchise though the Young signing hasn't quite been a slam dunk. At the time I felt like the Young deal was a good one for the Lakers, albeit in a vacuum. His deal pays him, on average, just over $5 million per year, which isn't a bad for a guy who can create his own shot in a pinch. However, as I mentioned back then, while Young's deal is solid the opportunity cost was tremendous as there were other players available who wold have offered better value.

 For example, compare the numbers put up per 36-minutes by Young to those of Isaiah Thomas (signed a similar 4-year deal):
Rk Player Age FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS
1 Isaiah Thomas 25 6.9 16.4 .422 2.6 6.9 .379 4.3 9.5 .454 6.2 7.0 .874 0.7 2.6 3.4 5.6 1.3 0.1 2.9 22.6
2 Nick Young 29 6.3 17.1 .366 3.0 8.1 .369 3.3 9.0 .363 4.8 5.3 .892 0.6 2.8 3.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 1.6 20.3
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/19/2015.


 Thomas is also life-long Laker fan and by all accounts wanted to sign with the team but no offer was made. He is nearly 4 years younger than Swaggy is and is producing far superior numbers with a nearly identical usage rate. It's clear that while Young is beloved by Lakers fans Thomas would have been a much better choice based on on-court production, although it must be said that the Lakers would likely not be in a position to retain their draft pick this year with Thomas on the roster in place of Young.

 Young's poor shooting this season has also essentially killed any trade value that he might have had, which was a risk the Lakers knew they were taking when they signed him. They gambled on a player who put up good numbers in a contract-year and thus far it has burned them . A younger, more talented player like Thomas was almost guaranteed to produce at a higher rate than the contract that he signed, which creates trade value.  Swaggy, on the other hand, was always more of a 50/50 proposition to provide value relative to his deal.

 All that said, if Young's shooting percentage goes back up to 42% or so next season and he continues to be a big shot-maker then his trade value will go back up, especially since there will be one year less on it and the salary cap will be increasing, making his deal less of a hit. While Young's deal isn't crippling it hopefully has shown the front office how dangerous it can be to give a long-term deal to a player like Young. Fan support can be a good thing for a player, but fans cheer with their hearts and it's on the front office to sign the player that will help the franchise win instead of the fun guy that excites the crowd. We will have to wait until this summer to find out if the the Lakers truly learned their lesson.

 As for Nick Young, Lakers fans can only hope that he recovers fully from his latest injury and can find his swag again this summer.  Until then, let's enjoy one of his other claims to fame: making multiple appearances on Shaqtin A Fool.


For more Lakers analysis follow me on twitter @16ringsNBA


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