Tuesday, March 10, 2015

The Rise of Jordan Clarkson

Nearly 9 months ago Jordan Clarkson sat and watched as his NBA dream nearly slipped away. In the 2014 NBA Draft one name after another was called but none of them belonged to him. A guard out of Missouri, Clarkson had been optimistically projected to be selected somewhere near the end of the first round, but as the 30th pick was taken his name was still on the board.  At that point he knew that he would be a second-round pick at best, which meant no guaranteed money or roster spot.  Still, he hoped to hear his name announced on draft night.

That's when Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak sprung into action, purchasing the 46th pick in the draft from the Washington Wizards for $1.8 million in the hopes of selecting the young Filipino-American guard.

Kupchak and the Lakers saw something in Clarkson that other teams either overlooked or undervalued. He has a wingspan of 6'8", which is longer than average for a 6'5" human being. The extra 3 inches of length on his arms means that he has an easier time getting his shot off over the top of defenders and defensively can cover more territory. While "wingspan" might be a Jay Bilas drinking game on draft night it's also a valuable commodity in the NBA...just ask Giannis Antetokounmpo.

 Beyond his impressive physical measurements the Lakers also noticed that Clarkson's efficiency over the final stretch of his Missouri career had dropped considerably, and with good reason. While most teams simply saw that his Field Goal percentage plummeted from 48% to 39% and wrote him off the Lakers understood that he was under tremendous emotional strain due to his father's cancer diagnosis. 

 That Clarkson was able to compose himself and play as well as he still did spoke to his character, even if his on-court stats had suffered and caused many teams to doubt him. The Lakers took a gamble that his production during those final two months at Missouri was an aberration caused by his the uncertainty of his father's illness and not indicative of his true potential. In other words, the Lakers, an organization known for being behind the times in terms of analytics, were able to look past the numbers and see the young man behind them. They recognized things that simply could never be reflected on a stat sheet, and happily selected Clarkson with the 46th pick.

 Today, Jordan Clarkson is the starting point guard for the Los Angeles Lakers and one of the hottest names in basketball. He has gone from a draft day free-fall to battling the likes of Mike Conley, Rajon Rondo, Tony Parker, John Wall, Damian Lillard, and the rest of the NBA's plethora of incredible point guards. Not only is he holding his own against the very best the NBA has to offer, he's finding success against them.

His strong play has certainly been a welcome development in Los Angeles.  In a lost season, the game-by-game improvements that Clarkson has shown have been just about the only thing keeping Lakers fans tuning in.

He's using his undeniable quickness to get into the lane and wreak havoc on opposing defenses. Clarkson's play in the pick and roll, considered to be one of his weaknesses heading into the season, has turned into one of his major strengths. While he still occasionally makes the wrong read or tries to force a bad pass his mid-range jumper has become nearly automatic.

He has also developed a dependable floater that allows him to score over the top of rotating bigs.  Whether he blows by his defender with pure speed or uses a pick to slither into the lane, Clarkson's floater has enabled him to become a threat in the paint even when he can't quite get all the way to the rim.

  His footwork and ability to read the defense have also improved immensely, as visible by the nice up-and-under move he put on former Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler.  He occasionally pulls off gems like that, where the influence of footwork gurus like Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant is clearly evident.

 That's not to say that there isn't a lot of work to be done still, as Clarkson has to become a better shooter from three (31%...yikes) and still can get caught out of position on defense. His wingspan (drink!) does help him make up for mistakes on the defensive end but he has a ways to go to realize his full potential there.  Ideally, once he gets better at reading angles and anticipating what the offense wants, he will become a long-armed terror, picking off passes, creating deflections, and getting a hand in the face of perimeter shooters. 

Complaints are minimal though, as they should be.   For any rookie he's doing a great job, but for the 46th pick in the draft he has been absolutely phenomenal.

 To further illustrate just how impressive Jordan Clarkson has been, take a look at how he stacks up compared to other guards from the 2014 draft (I went with per 36-minute numbers to get closer to comparing apples to apples):

Rk Player Season Age G GS FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS
1 Jordan Clarkson 2014-15 22 40 19 6.1 14.0 .438 0.9 3.0 .314 5.2 11.0 .472 3.0 3.7 .814 4.2 4.0 1.2 0.3 2.1 16.2
2 Dante Exum 2014-15 19 62 21 2.9 8.3 .355 1.7 5.2 .321 1.3 3.1 .411 0.6 0.9 .645 2.8 4.0 0.9 0.3 2.1 8.1
3 Zach LaVine 2014-15 19 56 23 5.1 12.1 .420 0.7 2.5 .288 4.4 9.6 .454 2.3 2.9 .813 3.8 5.2 1.3 0.2 3.5 13.2
4 Elfrid Payton 2014-15 20 64 45 4.1 10.0 .415 0.1 0.5 .167 4.1 9.5 .427 1.7 3.0 .542 4.9 7.5 1.9 0.2 3.0 10.0
5 Marcus Smart 2014-15 20 47 18 3.4 9.5 .359 1.9 5.8 .325 1.5 3.7 .413 1.7 2.6 .667 4.4 4.8 1.9 0.3 1.9 10.4
6 Nik Stauskas 2014-15 21 55 0 3.2 9.3 .344 1.3 4.8 .280 1.9 4.5 .411 2.0 2.2 .872 2.5 1.9 0.6 0.5 1.2 9.7
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/10/2015.

 Keep in mind that Dante Exum, Marcus Smart, Nik Stauskas, Elfrid Payton, and Zach LaVine were all lottery picks and yet Jordan Clarkson is currently out-dueling them all on a per-36 minutes basis.  At this point the Lakers are getting more bang for their buck out of the 46th pick than the Jazz are out of the 5th pick.

While most would point to the fact that Clarkson has been given a larger role in the Lakers offense compared to his competition 3 of them (Smart, Exum, Payton) are currently starters and another (LaVine) has been in and out of the starting lineup and has received solid minutes off the bench. Only Nik Stauskas hasn't been given a major push by his team, and the numbers that he has put up help to explain why.  Otherwise, Clarkson's contemporaries have had somewhat similar opportunities to produce for their respective teams.

 Even some advanced statistics like PER recognize Clarkson as the best of the bunch, although not all do. It must be noted that Smart's defense gives him the slight edge in some metrics, such as Win Shares. Clarkson also has the highest usage rate, suggesting that his competitors might come closer to having the impact he has had with a few more touches on the ball.

It also bears mentioning that Clarkson is the oldest of the group, which helps explain why so many NBA teams passed on him on draft day.  In a league where upside is king, choosing a 19 or 20 year-old over a 22 year-old who is currently a better player is common, as it's expected that the younger player has more growth potential.

                                          Even if that 22 year-old can do this to the 19 year-old

Still, that shouldn't take away from the fact that the Lakers found themselves a true steal. If the 2014 Draft were to be re-done today Clarkson would likely find himself taken in the top 10 instead of falling to the middle of the second round.  It's a testament to the organization's ability to identify talent, which is of note because the team will have as many as four draft picks this coming summer.

The Lakers didn't pick Clarkson just because they owned a draft pick and got lucky on a shot in the dark, they recognized the skills that Jordan possessed and then did what was necessary to go out and acquire the pick used to draft him. That's smart and insightful management, something that the Lakers haven't been accused of lately.

Of course we don't want to get ahead of ourselves.  Jordan Clarkson still needs to be given time to learn and grow as a player, but what we have seen so far has been very, very promising.  The rest of the league has taken notice too.

After Clarkson had lit up the Grizzlies for 25 points and forced them to put defensive ace Tony Allen on him down the stretch, Memphis PF Zach Randolph said:

 "I didn't know who the dude was.  2nd round pick?  Who evaluatin' this talent?" 

A few days later, before a showdown with Dallas, Mavs Coach Rick Carlisle weighed in on Clarkson:

"Early in the year, like a lot of rookies, he was inconsistent and unsure, wasn't sure what his game was," Carlisle said. "Now you look at him, when you go for 25 against Mike Conley in Memphis, and you've got a pretty substantial lead in the fourth quarter, you're getting it done. He's doing a great job."
Carlisle also credited Byron Scott for Clarkson's progression, stating:

"One of the remarkable things about this progression with Clarkson was that he really appeared to be more of a two guard than a point guard," Carlisle said. "He's really getting a feel for playing the point, and that's great coaching." 
It's quotes like these that should give Lakers fans some comfort with the rebuilding process that is currently taking place (although to be fair it's not just Scott working with Clarkson, as Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, and Carlos Boozer have also been in his ear).  While it isn't as fast as some want it to be and the team isn't losing quite as many games as just about everyone would like right now, young players like Clarkson are being given opportunities to grow.  If and when this franchise turns things around it's going to be because of guys like him, who were well scouted, acquired, and then given the support needed to develop into quality NBA players.

 To underscore how successful Clarkson has been up to this point I'll leave you with the numbers he has put up as a 22 year-old rookie compared to those produced at the same age by the guy Clarkson is compared to most often, Monta Ellis:

Rk Player From To G GS FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS
1 Jordan Clarkson 2015 2015 40 19 6.1 14.0 .438 0.9 3.0 .314 5.2 11.0 .472 3.0 3.7 .814 4.2 4.0 1.2 0.3 2.1 16.2
2 Monta Ellis 2006 2008 207 128 6.9 13.9 .495 0.4 1.5 .285 6.5 12.4 .520 3.5 4.6 .761 4.1 3.9 1.6 0.3 2.5 17.7
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/10/2015.

 To make these numbers even more impressive, consider that Ellis was in his third NBA season at that point, well past many of the rookie mistakes that Clarkson currently makes.  Lakers fans, celebrate this one small victory. It might not be much, but Jordan Clarkson has given LA a reason to smile, even if only for a moment or two.

For more Lakers analysis follow me on twitter @16ringsNBA

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