Sunday, March 1, 2015

By Winning Lakers Risk Losing It All

The past week has not been a good one for the Los Angeles Lakers.  While most fan bases would be celebrating a 3-game win streak Lakers fans are bemoaning their bad luck and cursing coach Byron Scott.  Due to the nature of the ill-fated Steve Nash trade the Lakers only keep their 2015 draft pick if it falls in the top 5, a place where the Lakers haven't been in 33 years.  The team is currently in a very tight race to the bottom, and much to the dismay of the Laker faithful, the recent win streak has put that pick in serious jeopardy.

However, the rage of Lakers fans has roots well beyond simply losing the draft pick.  To fully understand the situation we have to hop in the DeLorean and take a short trip back to February 19th, 2015.  

Effectively eliminated from playoff contention, the Lakers found themselves tasked with rebuilding their once mighty brand.  Fans had surprisingly come around on the idea of a complete tear down, preferring to have young talent to watch grow instead of yet another win-now move that sacrifices the team's future.

That being the case, many fans were hoping for the Lakers to make a move by the 3 pm ET trade deadline on the 19th, and ideally it would be one that would help the Lakers lose more games this season in exchange for future picks or young players.  The players they hoped to see shipped out included Jeremy Lin and Jordan Hill, both of whom may not be back in purple and gold next year.

The Lakers opted not to move in that direction, instead choosing to be one of the few teams that didn't make a move at the deadline.  While most everyone, myself included, believed that it was a missed opportunity to help secure the draft pick and build for the future, no one was overly upset about it.  After all this was Mitch Kupchak's M.O.: if teams don't meet the asking price for his assets then no trade takes place.  Period.

While the team hadn't decreased it's talent level like their competitors in New York and Philadelphia things were still looking up. 

To their credit, the front office and coaching staff had been doing a solid job navigating the difficult waters of team building.  On February 20th, the day after the deadline, Mitch Kupchak admitted that he was looking ahead to the draft and that would be the team's focus for the remainder of the season.

 While his statements didn't exactly justify not making a deadline deal, Mitch's words were still exactly what Lakers fans wanted to hear.  The team had realized the situation they are in and would be putting aside their pride to build for the future.  Even prickly coach Byron Scott had been getting in on the act, as his lineups helped both improve the future and secure the pick by giving major minutes to the few young players on the roster.

To fans it was as though the skies parted, flowers were blooming, and birds were singing.  Not only were the Lakers making smart public statements about their situation but they were actively making moves within their roster to help facilitate a brighter future.  After a season and a half of misery the Lakers were finally prepared to do what was necessary to properly rebuild.

The product on the court reflected the team's long-term goals.  Jordan Clarkson was showing flashes of brilliance, and fans loudly promoted him as the steal of the draft at the 46th pick.  Second-year forward Ryan Kelly was shooting threes at a high percentage, indicating a solid future as a stretch four. Rookie Tarik Black dominated the boards, and while he lacked skill in other areas his elite rebounding could be a major asset.

The good vibes kept rolling when news broke on February 21st that injured rookie and 7th overall pick Julius Randle was back to working out at the Lakers practice facility and would be good to go for summer league.

The icing on cake, of course, was that not only was Scott prioritizing minutes for the young players and allowing them to play through their mistakes, but also that veteran players who aren't likely to return to return next season were firmly planted to the pine.

 Clearly, the organization had learned its lesson from last season, when a contract-year Nick Young got hot down the stretch and dropped the Lakers 2014 pick several spots.  That wouldn't be happening again; this time there was a plan in place and the team wasn't going to allow contract-year players chasing big paydays to potentially ruin the team's shot at finding a future cornerstone.  Not this time, when winning games could mean losing the pick completely rather than just dropping down a bit.

It was smart, rational decision making from an organization that had been anything but for so many years.  For the first time in a long time it felt o.k. to be a Laker fan again.

Down the stretch the team would be bad, but bad with a purpose.  Fans were salivating over the thought of landing a player like Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns in the draft and pairing them with Randle on the Lakers front line of the future.  Add Jordan Clarkson to the fold on the perimeter and young role players like Kelly, Robert Sacre, and Black to the mix and the Lakers would have something they haven't had in a long time: hope.

It was at that moment, on February 22nd, just when fans had finally begun to feel hopeful for the future, that it all came crashing down.  For no apparent reason the team undid all of their previous success and made moves that can only be described as self-destructive.

With the Boston Celtics in town, Scott's rotations were flipped on their head as veterans usurped the minutes that were supposed to go to the Lakers youth.  Contract-year players had huge games in an attempt to secure their next payday, and worst of all, the Lakers won.

Down the stretch against the Celtics it was Jeremy Lin and Wesley Johnson who got hot, scoring 25 and 22 points respectively.

 Inexplicably, Scott rode the two veterans, both of whom are unlikely to return to the Lakers next season, to victory.  Ryan Kelly and Jordan Clarkson stayed glued to the bench, while Tarik Black played a total of 4 minutes.  Scott decided that veteran Carlos Boozer would draw the start and the returning Jordan Hill would soak up the rest of Black's valuable minutes.

Fans hoped that these moves were made simply because the hated Celtics were in town, and as a Showtime Laker it was in Byron's blood to defeat them by any means necessary.  Unfortunately, the same scenario played out again three nights later against the Utah Jazz, only this time it was Jordan Hill, set to be a free agent this summer if the team doesn't pick up his $9 million option, who couldn't miss.  Hill's unwanted surge hit the team with yet another painful victory.

The only positive to take away from the Jazz game was the play of Jordan Clarkson, as the 46th pick in the draft dominated his rookie counterpart Dante Exum, who was taken 5th overall.

                                   Clarkson also provided this highlight-reel dunk over Exum.  Beautiful stuff.

On February 27th the Lakers took on the Milwaukee Bucks, and disaster struck once again.  Veteran Wayne Ellington (yep, you guess it...also in a contract year), carried the team down the stretch with his clutch shooting.  Clarkson, despite playing well, watched the game from the bench during crunch time as Ellington and Lin handled the ball and pushed the Lakers to another unbearable victory.

As a result of this untimely three-game win streak the Lakers currently sit at 16-41, 4th-worst in the league and ironically three games ahead of Minnesota and Philadelphia win column.  They have also uncomfortably gained ground on the 5th-worst Orlando Magic, who sit at 19 wins, and the sliding Denver Nuggets and Sacramento Kings, both of whom have 20 victories.  In other words, not only are the Lakers not improving their chances of keeping their draft pick, they are are dangerously close to moving up to 5th, 6th, or even 7th and all but ensuring that the pick will be gone.

Even if they manage to stay at 4th the Lakers have a nerve-wracking 17% chance of losing their pick completely, which is way too high considering the importance of adding young talent at this juncture.

Fans in the know loudly protested via social media but Coach Scott simply laughed off their criticisms and proclaimed that the Lakers won't tank.  The only explanation he could give for actions was that he wanted to build a winning culture and that attempting to get a good draft pick just backfires anyway (in spite of all of the evidence to the contrary).  Scott chose to blatantly ignore the fact that winning with players who won't be with the team after this season doesn't help build a winning culture in any way, shape, or form.

Of course, this is the same Byron Scott who began the season by stating his belief that thee-point shots don't win championships, and last week stuck his foot in his mouth again when he spoke out against analytics and admitted that he doesn't use them.  In ESPN's rankings of team's who use analytics to help in their decision making the Lakers finished second-to-last, showing that both Scott and the organization are dangerously behind the times.

It's something of a unique situation, where an intelligent and progressive fan base is finding itself at odds with a coach who prefers old-school methods and thinking.

As such, it would appear as though Scott is lashing out at a world that has insulted his values.  The game has changed, the NBA is now populated with stat-geeks, free-flowing offense, and refers to players with terms like "efficiency" and "return on investment".  It's a stark contrast from the NBA that Scott and the Showtime Lakers dominated, and while fans have caught on and understand the value of losing to win, Scott is offended by the notion.  To outside observers it looks as though he's striking back at those who support the Lakers rebuild by attempting to unravel it in spite of the roster it would leave him with for the future.

Shooting the franchise he loves in the foot in order to prove a point would be maniacal, but then again, the moves being made right now are just that crazy.  It's as though Scott, and by proxy the organization, has reverted back to the "we're the Lakers, everyone will come play for us" mantra that poisoned the past few years.  They were one of the last teams to attempt to adapt to the new CBA and the analytics movement, and since February 22nd they appear to have regressed back to their non-progressive, reactionary stance.  

Perhaps the worst part of all of this is that the hope that the Lakers had built up is now inexplicably gone.  Fans are justifiably in an uproar, as not only is the team winning, but they are winning at the expense of their young players.

In the most apocalyptic scenario, the team would lose their coveted draft pick and players like Jeremy Lin, Wesley Johnson, Jordan Hill, Ed Davis, Carlos Boozer, and Wayne Ellington will earn themselves contracts with other teams, leaving the Lakers with nothing to show for the worst season in franchise history.  That outcome would be one that would undoubtedly cost the most popular franchise in the league a large chunk of their massive fan base.

Throughout the past few tumultuous years the fans have stuck it out, refusing to abandon their beloved franchise when the chips are down.  Their resolve, however, only goes so far.  To lose the 2015 draft pick by self-inflicted means would be to lose all hope for the future.  Not only would it prove that the roster will not be winning anytime soon but it would also confirm the whispered fears that both the coaching staff and front office are not capable of bringing the team back from the brink.

Fans can only sit by and watch the team that they love make self-destructive decisions for so long before they have no choice but to distance themselves from it.  Lakers fans are, if nothing else,  a passionate bunch, and the past few seasons have been a painful experience.  At some point the strain becomes too much and the ties will break.

The Lakers organization are lucky in that they have a fan base that is not only knowledgeable enough to understand the necessity of a rebuild but also patient enough to stand strong during it.  However, by self-inflicting numerous wounds on the team over the past week the franchise is playing a dangerous game.  Consciously making the decision to rob the fans of hope will only drive them away, some permanently.  

The final 25 games remaining on the schedule will be some of the most crucial in the team's illustrious history.  If the madness of the past week and a half is allowed to continue and they lose their draft pick the Lakers will find themselves in a free fall, spiraling out of control.  Reverse course and, depending on the records of their competitors, the team just may restore hope after all.

The fork in the road has two clear paths: Lose and have hope for the future or win and risk losing everything.  For the sake of the fans, let's hope they choose wisely.

For more Lakers analysis follow me on twitter @16ringsNBA      

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