Thursday, February 19, 2015

Why the Lakers Lost Big at the Trade Deadline

The trade deadline has passed and wow was it an exciting one.  A flurry of activity erupted on Twitter right before the clock ran out, with nearly every team making some sort of move.  Unfortunately the Lakers were one of the few teams that opted to sit on the sidelines this go-round, and it may come back to haunt them.

Most of the Lakers buzz involved soon-to-be free agent Goran Dragic, who made it clear that he wanted out of Phoenix and that he would only sign long-term with the Lakers, Knicks, or Heat.  While the Lakers pursued the deal they ultimately decided that giving up assets for Dragic just didn't make sense when they can attempt to sign him in free agency this summer.  There was also concern that adding Dragic now would cause the team to win too many games and thus forfeit their top-5 protected draft pick.



The Suns reportedly asked the Lakers to remove the top-5 protection from the pick as part of the deal.  The Lakers, of course, laughed their asses off.  The Suns stuck it to the Lakers in the trade for their sleeper agent Steve Nash, but Mitch Kupchak isn't going to get fooled twice by the same organization.

While the Lakers ultimately decided that adding Dragic now wasn't in their best interest they were hoping that Phoenix would end up simply keeping their disgruntled point guard, as that would give the Lakers the best shot of signing him in free agency.  If  he were to be traded to another team it would have been best for LA if he had gone to New York and helped the Knicks win, which could have improved the Lakers draft position.

Unfortunately neither scenario happened, as Phoenix sent Dragic to Miami, where he is likely to stay.  They have a team ready to win now and play in the Leastern Conference, which offers more opportunity for success than the buzz saw that is the West.  For the Lakers this leaves one less free agent to pursue this summer, which isn't good for a franchise that's hurting for talent and has money to spend.

When the Lakers refused to remove the top-5 protection on their pick Phoenix opted to move it in a multi-team deal with the Sixers and Bucks that netted them Brandon Knight.  The Lakers pick wound up in the hands of the Sixers, and that's where the real trouble begins.

The Lakers made the decision that keeping their draft pick and the precious few other assets that they own was more important than taking another risk on a guy who would be a free agent in a few months.

No one can really blame them for going this route after Dwight Howard's heel turn two summers ago.  He hit the greatest franchise in sports square in the back with a steel chair then spray painted H-O-U across their chest.  

While the decision to not improve the roster right now by giving up assets is certainly defensible, they also didn't make any moves to improve their chances of keeping their draft pick.  Currently the team sits fairly comfortably in the 4th spot, with a 4-game "lead" in the win column over the Orlando Magic.  However, they also have only 1 more win than the Sixers, 2 more than Minnesota, and 3 more than New York, leaving them tantalizingly close to improving their lottery odds.

Out-tanking their cellar-dwelling oppoenents would be incredibly beneficial, as currently all it takes for the Lakers to lose their draft pick this year is two teams behind them in the draft to jump ahead in the lottery, which isn't out of the question (they have a 44.7% chance of losing the pick if they are 5th, a 20% chance at 4th, a 4% chance at 3rd, and 0% at 2nd or 1st).

Some thought that the Lakers would attempt to improve their draft odds by trading players for draft picks (first or second rounders).  While they don't have many valuable trade chips they do have somewhat productive players like Jordan Hill, Jeremy Lin, Wayne Ellington, and Nick Young.  Mitch Kupchak has always demanded top value for his assets though, and apparently no team was willing to meet the asking price.

Unfortunately, while the Lakers stood pat, two of the three teams that they are chasing in the tank race made moves to become significantly worse.  The Knicks went through with their long-rumored plan to shut down Carmelo Anthony for the year and Sixers gave away Michael Carter-Williams and KJ McDaniels for draft picks (including the Lakers top-5 protected 2015 pick).

At this point the Sixers are so hell-bent on obtaining all the draft picks that they are even sacrificing quality young players to the tank gods in order to do it.  MCW and McDaniels were inspired picks by the team but their lust for terrible play can't be sated.  The team had started to actually win games, which simply isn't tolerated.   

To make matters worse the Lakers play the Knicks once more this year and the Sixers twice.  While fans were hoping to see the Lakers lose those games  that outcome is now extremely unlikely.  Additionally, with the Sixers now owning the Lakers pick they will have extra motivation to do whatever it takes to lose to LA and push the Lakers up in the standings.

Minnesota, on the other hand, may have decreased their on-the-court production slightly by swapping Thad Young for Kevin Garnett but it's possible that KG's veteran leadership will end up being a positive for the up-and-coming team.  At the very least he will provide a feel-good story for the team to focus on for the rest of the season.  

It also has to be mentioned that the Wolves have recently seen Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, and Kevin Martin return to their rotation from various injuries.  With a full compliment of players they are not nearly as bad of a team as their record would suggest.  Unfortunately, while the Wolves didn't make any major tank moves they do have an absolutely horrific schedule for the remainder of the season, because that's just the luck the Lakers have these days.

Needless to say it's now very unlikely that the Lakers are going to be able to drop below the 4th spot in the tank race.  They had been doing a fantastic job of losing over the past few weeks but there is just too much talent on the squad (no, seriously) for them to hope to keep it up.  Their schedule is one of the easiest in the league down the stretch, which doesn't bode well for the tank.

At the deadline the Lakers made their decision to throw all of their eggs into the draft pick basket but that has become an even more dicey proposition with the tanktacular moves that their competition made.  While Byron Scott has promised lineup changes it's hard to imagine that he'll find a better tank squad than the current starting lineup of rookies Jordan Clarkson and Tarik Black,  second year players Robert Sacre and Ryan Kelly, and the surprisingly effective Wayne Ellington.  It's more likely that whatever moves he makes will improve the team, and thereby hurt the franchise long-term.

The team is on very thin ice and every win from here on out will be a giant step backwards in the Lakers rebuilding process.  It's a nightmare scenario but Lakers fans could be forced to watch a Nick Young hot streak derail the tank for the second year in a row, only this time the franchise would be robbed of their pick entirely.  The Lakers didn't overtly hurt their cause at the deadline but the moves made around them sure did.

29 nerve-wracking games left for Lakers fans, and then a lot of praying for good luck (for a change) in the lottery.

Follow me on twitter for more tank talk @16ringsNBA
  

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