The Return of the Lakers

It's no secret that the Lakers have a long road back to relevance.  The past few seasons have featured one mistake after another compounded by a nearly unprecedented run of bad luck.  With very few assets in the cupboard they are going to have to be mistake-free in four key areas: 2nd chance players, draft picks, free agents, and trades.  Let's take a look at how they can move forward in each area.

Second Chance Players

In the current NBA one of the most important factors when building a team is a player's production on the court compared to the length and value of their contract.  The CBA has made exceeding the cap increasingly punitive, and as a result finding productive talent on team-friendly contracts has become a must (this is why the value of first round picks has skyrocketed, as the cost of their contracts is low compared to their average production).

There is now extra incentive for teams to leave no stone unturned when searching for talent.  Players who went undrafted or washed out with other franchises can typically be signed at bargain prices and to unguaranteed deals, which means that if they don't perform they can simply be cut (this is why the Lakers claiming Tarik Black off of waivers was such a smart move).

While the odds of one of these players panning out are slim the benefits of finding a diamond in the rough can be immense.  Hassan Whiteside and Jeremy Lin might be the most sensational reclamation projects, but players such as Wesley Matthews, Brad Miller, and John Starks also went from being undrafted to relative NBA stardom.  Occasionally good players do fall between the cracks or are undervalued by their teams and it takes an astute GM to identify and acquire them.

While these players will ultimately get a big payday their initial contract can bring extreme value for their teams.  Whiteside, in particular, has taken the NBA by storm this season and will play out the remainder of this year and next on a minimum deal, which is an incredible return on investment for the HEAT.  Likewise Jeremy Lin made a fortune for the Knicks while toiling away on a minimum deal before signing a big contract with the Houston Rockets.

Let's not forget that drafted players can also find themselves washing out with the team that selected them.  Sometimes a change of scenery is all it takes for a player to realize their potential.  Chauncey Billups and Kyle Lowry exemplify this phenomenon, as both found stardom after leaving their initial clubs.  Finding a player who is undervalued by their current team but has untapped potential can also be a major coup for teams smart enough to pounce on them.

To their credit the Lakers have done fairly well with second chance players.  While the odds of any of them turning into stars is incredibly slim they have still managed to pull solid backup-level talent from the NBA recycle bin.  Over the past two seasons they have successfully (and cheaply) brought in Ed Davis, Carlos Boozer, Xavier Henry, Jodie Meeks, Wesley Johnson, Jordan Farmar, Nick Young, Wayne Ellington, and Ronnie Price.  They also wisely claimed undrafted rookie Tarik Black off of waivers.

Almost all of them have at least proven that they can be decent role players off the bench, which has to give Lakers fans a little bit of confidence in the team's scouting department.  Still, the Lakers have to keep plugging away.  They have a team stocked with players who would be ideally suited to a reserve role, but haven't been able to strike gold and find a starter...yet.





Draft Picks

The Lakers find themselves in a tricky situation with their draft pick this season, as it's slated to go to the Phoenix Suns as part of the Steve Nash trade unless it falls in the top 5.  As of this writing the Lakers sit with the 4th worst record in the league, giving them a decent chance of keeping the pick but also an uncomfortably high possibility of losing it.

While keeping the pick this year almost certainly means losing it next year there are no guarantees that they will have another opportunity to be this bad again, and landing a top pick in the draft is the best way to rebuild a franchise.

Should they keep the pick this year then next season the team will essentially be adding two lottery picks to their roster as Julius Randle will be returning from his broken leg and foot surgery.  If the team is going to get back on track bolstering their squad with two young, talented players on rookie contracts would be a great way to start.

Yes please.  Or any top 5 guy, really.

With everything that is at stake it's going to be incredibly important for the Lakers to lose as much as possible.  Losing isn't fun but it has to be done with the goal of improving the team in mind.  Should the Lakers win too many games down the stretch and be forced to surrender their pick to Phoenix then this entire season of misery will have been for nothing.  It's a fate far worse than having to endure a few more meaningless losses.

Tanking adequately enough to keep the pick may require the Lakers to trade moderately productive players like Jordan Hill, Jeremy Lin, Ed Davis, and possibly buy out Carlos Boozer, who is ineligible to be traded.  As I've mentioned before the Lakers trade assets may not bring much in return in the way of first round picks or young talent but clearing those players from the squad will help them keep pace with other teams that are actively making (or preparing to make) tank moves, like New York and Minnesota.

Let's also not forget that the Lakers have had some success finding talent in the second round. Ryan Kelly, Jordan Clarkson, and Robert Sacre were all found in the second round, and all three are currently in the starting lineup, along with undrafted Tarik Black and Wayne Ellington, who was barely a first round pick (28th in the 2009 draft).  While none would be starting on competitive teams they all have the skills to be useful role players, and Clarkson in particular could develop into a starter-level player.

The Lakers need to do whatever they can to restock their draft picks after spending so many years trading them away.  While second round picks aren't as sexy as firsts they are certainly easier to obtain, and at this point the team can't be too choosy.  At the end of the day the draft is simply the best way to add young talent to a team that is starving for it, and the Lakers need to do everything they can to add more picks to their arsenal, even if that means tanking and trading away the few valuable players they have on the roster.

Free Agents

The Lakers have always considered themselves to be an attractive destination for free agents, with their championship history, warm weather, and massive fan base all enticing the best players to don purple and gold.  While all that may still be true they are no longer in a position to spend their way back to relevancy thanks to the draconian CBA.

Now the Laker brain trust has to be incredibly selective about who they spend their cap space on, and how long they issue those contracts for.  This is an area that the Lakers have struggled in lately, giving Kobe his massive $48 million/2 year deal, Jordan Hill $18 million/2 years with a team option rather than unguaranteed (a huge difference for trade purposes) and Nick Young a $21.5 million, 4 year deal that takes him well into his 30s (actually, the Nick Young deal isn't terrible, but the opportunity cost is, as they could have had Isaiah Thomas for the same price).

There is a lot of pressure on the team to improve and do so quickly.  Their large fan base and media spotlight has made their suffering more visible than most bottom-feeding teams.  Jim Buss has also given himself a deadline to either improve or resign, and Magic Johnson has also externally put pressure on the team with his comments about Buss' ability to right the ship.

All of these things add up to a very dangerous off-season coming up this summer for the Lakers, one where agents and rival GM's alike will be preying on their desperation.  If they panic and throw big money at an aging quasi-star (there are several available this year) they could well find themselves stuck in mediocrity for longer than anyone anticipated.

If the Lakers attempt to apply a band-aid to the massive wound they are suffering from they will only prolong the agony.  Instead, they need to focus on finding two types of players: A. Young talent with star potential and B. Players that will sign team-friendly contracts.

This team isn't constructed to attract a superstar just yet, but the Lakers have been in swing-for-the-fences mode for a while now in spite of the impetuousness of the plan.  As I wrote previously, this offseason is full of a strange mix of aging stars and restricted young talent.  The Lakers must resist the temptation to throw money at the former group.  It's one of the most crucial decisions they have to make this summer, and if they give in to desperation and settle that contract will come back to haunt them.

If they can target younger players, even those who are restricted, they can sell the LA lifestyle.  Winning with the Lakers means more than winning with any other franchise because of the history of the organization and the insane popularity that comes with it.  If a player has an eye towards becoming a true star in the league then Los Angeles is the place to do it.  The team is simply better off throwing money at a restricted player that can grow into a star than an aging, past-his-prime unrestricted player.  Even signing no big names would be better than overpaying the wrong player in the long run.  Unfortunately, the Lakers seem poised to make a poor decision this summer, but fans have to hope that patience and reason win the day.


Trades

Historically the Lakers have done fairly well with trades.  Mitch Kupchak has swung a number of deals that ended up benefiting the team, such as the Pau Gasol trade, Jordan Hill trade, Jordan Clarkson, etc.  However, there is also cause for concern.

The Lakers have shown that they can be extremely slow to adapt to changes in the league.  In 2005 they traded Caron Butler for Kwame Brown in part because it would allow Lamar Odom to shift to small forward, which the team thought was Odom's natural position.  Of course they did this right when the league was changing it's rules and small ball and outside shooting became more prevalent, which meant that using Odom as a three was a terrible decision, as was trading for Kwame (although his expiring deal did lead to the Pau trade...if only expirings were still as valuable today).

They also criminally undervalued first round picks for years, trading them away in one deal after another, assuming that those picks would always be late in the first round because they would be at the top of the league.  They traded away three first round picks in the trades for Dwight Howard and Steve Nash only to have both players burn them in their own way.

Still, Mitch Kupchak is an experienced master in the art of the trade.  He refused to deal Pau Gasol for second-round picks at the deadline last year because he knew that would damage his trade position in the future.  He's always held out for top-value on his players, and while sometimes that means that nothing happens it also means that teams know they can't low ball the Lakers.

This is a good thing for a team that is desperate for assets.  If a team wants Jordan Hill at the deadline they will have to pay for him.  If someone wants the Houston Rocket's first round pick this summer (owned by the Lakers due to the Lin trade) they will need to pay full price for it.  Mitch will either get top value or not trade at all, which is a great quality for a GM to have.

 You will give us all the picks.  

At times he has been guilty of paying too much to obtain other players who didn't pan out (looking at you Steve Nash), but in the end there are few general managers in the league who can work a deal like Kupchak can.

It won't be easy, especially when the franchise is under so much pressure to improve, which can erode trade leverage very quickly.  Just like with free agents though the Lakers have to have patient.  Making no deal is better than making the wrong deal.  If they can find a way to use their cap space intelligently to pry young players and picks away from teams (like they did the Jeremy Lin deal) then the rebuild will be that much shorter.

It's going to be an incredibly important trade deadline, final stretch, and offseason for the Lakers.  The choices they make (or don't make) are going to impact the success of the team over these next few years of rebuilding.  It's a lot of pressure, and we all hope that Mitch, Jim, and Jeanie are up to the challenge.

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