Saturday, August 9, 2014

Predictions for Next Season

We are in the midst of a strange, uncomfortable era of Lakers basketball.  As much as Lakers fans love to spout the "championship or bust" rhetoric it's clear that this season's squad is going to fall far short of those aspirations.  Fans do understand that every team has down seasons and the Lakers are no exception, but still something feels different this time.  The fan base is shaken, unsure of what comes next.  Of course they are right to feel that way, as over the past few years a series of mistakes compounded by the outright villainy of David Stern's infamous "basketball reasons" veto has left the team in the worst position in...well, ever.

Fans were tortured during the free agency period with rumors of Carmelo Anthony joining Kobe in LA but it wasn't meant to be (might be for the best).  Then there was the group of young guns with plenty of potential, guys that would bring Laker fans hope for the future.  Surely, Mitch would land at least one of Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas, Greg Monroe, Kyle Lowry, or Lance Stephenson.  Once again, misses all around.  

The team was left to pick through re-treads from last season and cast-offs from various franchises with high aspirations.  The Lakers watched All-Star big man Pau Gasol walk out the door for less money in Chicago just one season after watching the skittish Dwight Howard do the same.  Troubling times in Laker land to be sure.

Even while fans are uneasy though there is belief around the league that someday the Lakers will be back on top, if for no other reason than they are the Lakers and winning is what they do.  It may take longer than anyone expected and longer than the Lakers faithful are comfortable with but someday the sun will once again shine on the Staples center.  

There will be no parade down Figueroa street, and no one can truly say when we will see one again.  However, what can do is focus on this season, the here and now.  As Phil Jackson would say, "Live in the moment".

                                       
***Phil truly was the best.  Part motivator, part teacher, full-time media abuser.  Aside from Greg Popovich no one could play with the media quite like Phil could.  He wasn't the best X's and O's coach nor did he pretend to be.  Instead he focused on the X's and O's of life, on who his players were as people and what inspired them.  

I'm still in shock over the Lakers letting him leave for New York.  He's one of a kind and in the top 3 of Lakers I'd want to sit down and have a drink with.  (the others: Kareem Abdul-Jabaar and Magic Johnson.  So much wisdom in that group.  

He also coached from a chair that can only be described as a throne.  Phil Jackson: doing it before "Game of Thrones" was cool.    


So what can we realistically expect from the 2014-2015 Lakers squad?  On paper the team doesn't look very promising.  This is the lineup that we have to look forward to on opening day (assuming Michael Beasley doesn't end up in a Lakers jersey as rumored, which I'm pretty sure would be a sign of the apocalypse):

PG: Jeremy Lin, Steve Nash 
SG: Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, Jordan Clarkson
SF: Xavier Henry, Wesley Johnson
PF: Carlos Boozer, Julius Randle, Ryan Kelly
C: Jordan Hill, Ed Davis, Robert Sacre

For one thing, it's a near-certainty that next season's squad will be healthier than last.  With 220 man-games lost due to injury the Lakers were attacked by the injury bug harder than any team in the league.  It was a season filled with one improbable injury after another, to the point where each additional call of "Medic!" could only be greeted with disbelief.  It was a nearly unheard of bout of bad luck that is unlikely to repeat itself.

The Lakers do have elder statesmen Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash on the squad, and neither can be counted on to play a full season at this point.  Aside from them though we should see a much healthier team and therefore a more consistent one as well.

Speaking of the two Lakers who are a little long in the tooth, Kobe and to a lesser extent Nash will be important to the overall success of the team next season.  After missing nearly all of last season no one really knows what Kobe has left at this point.  If he can somehow come back to be the Kobe we saw pre-injury then this Laker team may have an outside shot at the playoffs.  If he's the guy we saw for 6 games last season, who rushed back from injury and didn't quite have his legs under him, the Lakers will struggle and likely end up giving the Phoenix Suns a fantastic draft pick next summer (the Lakers pick going to Phoenix from the Nash trade is only protected 1-5).


Steve Nash played in just 15 games last season and put up the worst numbers of his career since his rookie season.  It's extremely unlikely that he can be much of a positive impact on the floor at this stage in his career, but he can be useful as a mentor to young guards like Jeremy Lin and Jordan Clarkson.  Nash also drew the ire of Lakers fans when he admitted to trying to play one more season just to make sure he collects the entire $9.7 million remaining on his contract.  He has a lot of work to do if he wants to go out as a fan favorite.  Best-case scenario would be Nash logging 15-20 minutes per game as Lin's backup and putting up efficient offensive numbers.  Worst case?  Well it's hard to imagine things getting much worse than last season, but if Nash were to once again look completely done on the court and still push to get to the 10-game minimum to avoid medical retirement and rob the Lakers of cap relief then it would be rather difficult for him to show his face around Los Angeles again.

Outside of Kobe and Nash the Lakers squad is littered with players who have little chance of reaching All-Star status and no chance of becoming the superstar that the Lakers need.  Ok, Julius "The Juggernaut" Randle has a shot at becoming an All-Star level player, but he's at least a few years removed from that level.  The team is counting on guys like Jordan Hill, Ed Davis, Carlos Boozer, and Jeremy Lin all having fantastic seasons (in contract years no less), which may be a bit of wishful thinking on their part.

As such the Lakers won't be winning any games on pure talent like they are used to.  Instead they will find themselves in the relatively unfamiliar position of underdog against the majority of the league.  Fortunately they have hired a coach in Byron Scott who is willing to get his hands dirty to build a team that will out-work their opponents, using a defense-first strategy designed to keep them in games that they wouldn't be able to based on firepower alone.

Scott's no-nonsense, defense-or-die approach is the exact opposite of Mike D'Anonti's "Seven Seconds or Less" strategy he used over the last two seasons.  Lakers fans grew tired of seeing D'Antoni's team give up huge scoring runs to anyone and everyone, and if nothing else Scott should put an end to that.  That's not to say the Lakers will suddenly become a lockdown team, as they are still fielding a lineup with shockingly few even adequate defenders, but Scott will at least bring them back to respectable levels.  
Byron Scott: At least he's not Mike D'Antoni

As fans last season we were let down.  We saw a squad that was besieged by injuries, Kobe-less, Nash-less, and poorly coached.  D'Antoni tried to force square pegs into round holes and it was often painful to watch.

So what can we expect from this season?  For one expect a new defensive intensity but at the cost of a little bit of the team's offense.  Expect to see Jeremy Lin have a fantastic season and quickly become a fan favorite.  Expect to see the log jam at the PC/C positions battle each other all season long.  Boozer is fighting for his next contract, Randle, Davis and Kelly are hoping to live up to potential, and Jordan Hill aims to prove he's a starting-quality center and worthy of his big contract.  Expect to see Steve Nash bounce in and out of lineups while Jordan Clarkson learns the ropes.  Expect Xavier Henry to endear himself to Lakers fans once again and ultimately win the starting SF spot with his defensive tenacity.  And lastly, expect Kobe Bryant to move heaven and earth in his attempt to return to form for his final two seasons in the NBA.  With Kobe in particular it's either going to be a season of celebration as an icon proves he's not going to go away quietly...or one of sadness as we watch a star fade.

Prediction: 36-46, miss the playoffs and hand a #10 pick to Phoenix.     

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