Welcome Julius Randle, Now What?

The 2014 NBA Draft has come and gone and after months of speculation the Lakers were able to select Kentucky PF Julius Randle with the 7^th pick.  They also bought the 46^th pick in the draft in order to select combo guard Jordan Clarkson out of Missouri, who seems to be the modern type of guard the Lakers need: athletic, long, and versatile.  Now we just need to find out if he can play basketball at the NBA level, but he will get every opportunity to prove that he can during summer league and likely on the Lakers preseason roster. 

Randle, on the other hand, is more of a throw-back player.  In the modern NBA the power forward spot has shifted from the low-post banger style to a more Nowitzki-esque one.   Much of the “power” has been removed from the position in favor of long-range shooting, passing, ball handling, and rim protection.  Even the Celtics, who thrived on two-post offenses historically, have brought in bigs who can shoot from the outside like Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger.

***side note: I hate that the Celtics drafted Marcus Smart, if only because for the next 5 years we will be subjected to Boston fans pronouncing it Mahcus Smaht.  Like nails on a chalkboard.

The NBA is largely a copycat league, and the success of the Phoenix Suns “Seven Seconds or Less” system in the mid-late 2000s has ushered in a new era of quick hitting offense, lots of possessions, and of course, tons of threes.  In their system Shawn Marion, who everyone (including himself) thought was a small forward, took over the power forward role and used his quickness and athleticism to leave the lumbering 4s of the previous era in the dust.  No one expected the Suns to be successful using this model and yet they thrived, causing a tectonic shift in how NBA offenses and defenses operate. 

In the years since we have seen several players follow in Marion’s footsteps by sliding down a position to create a faster pace and put more emphasis on shooting and scoring in transition.  Most notably, Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James, who previously saw the majority of their minutes at small forward, have begun to almost exclusively play power forward.  Chris Bosh, solely a power forward for the majority of his time in the league, suddenly found himself thrust in to the center role.  Moreover, Bosh adapted to playing center not by working on his post moves but instead by adding the three point shot to his game, thus forcing the opposing team’s best rim protector away from the basket.  Again, the shift towards speed and shooting over size and strength has not been subtle.

Even the NBA champion San Antonio Spurs saw their offense beautifully come together when they inserted versatile big man Boris Diaw into the lineup, benefitting from his long-range shooting and passing over Tiago Splitter’s bruising interior play.

So where does Julius Randle fit into the modern NBA?  He does come off as something of a dinosaur, with a game reminiscent of days gone by rather than a step towards the future.  It’s like Charles Barkley playing in Kevin Love and Dirk Nowitzki’s NBA .  It sounds *Barkley voice* turrible, but being the oddity isn’t always bad thing.  Going against the grain can and has led to success in the past, after all most experts were extremely critical when they heard of Phoenix’s plan to run and gun, and today nearly every team in the league is using at least some facets of their offense. 

If Randle is successful in his quest to punish teams down low with his size and strength then we could see a push back towards the use of a more traditional two-post offense.  Teams planning on going small will be brutalized by Randle’s aggressive brand of bully ball. Let’s not forget the success that the Memphis Grizzlies have had with their bruising interior tandem of Marc Gasol and the man that Julius Randle is considered a clone of, Zach Randolph.  Yes, that’s the same Marc Gasol who will be a free agent in just one more season and likely a target of the Lakers. 

***sn: How angry would Memphis fans be if the Lakers stole the other Gasol from them too?  It would be a torches and pitchforks –level event for sure.

Of course changing the flow of the NBA river is a lot to put on a 19 year-old rookie, and he will have his struggles.  But maybe, just maybe, the Lakers are on to something with this Randle pick.  When everyone else is getting faster the Lakers made an effort to get stronger and more physical.  It’s a gamble, but the late, great Dr. Jerry Buss was a gambler and because of him taking risks is in the team’s DNA.
  

The question on every Laker fan’s mind is what next?  Randle alone isn’t going to lead the Purple and Gold back to the promised land but his selection does give us an interesting look into the Lakers strategy heading into free agency.  With only Kobe Bryant, Randle, Robert Sacre, the corpse of Steve Nash and likely Kendall Marshall on the roster, GM Mitch Kupchak has a lot of work to do in free agency in order to get the good guys back to the playoffs.  Most specifically, he needs to target players that are going to mesh well with Kobe and Randle, who could end up being the two most impactful players on the roster next season.

The Lakers depth chart currently looks like this:

PG: Marshall/Nash

SG: Bryant

SF:

PF: Randle

C: Sacre

In other words:

*Hear that?  Yep, it's silence.  Not even crickets.

We can assume that the Lakers are going to be looking for two kinds of players: long term options that they think will be part of the future (thus getting longer deals) and short term, cheap contract players that can be had on one or two year deals and will help preserve cap space. 

One thing to consider is that this year’s free agent crop is not particularly deep, a fact Mitch Kupchak acknowledged last night after the draft.  If the Lakers aren’t able to sign their long-term targets expect them to focus instead on one or two year deals with band-aid players. 

Let’s take a look at which players the Lakers should target and determine whether they fall into the long term or short term category, as well as what kind of contract each player should get.

Lakers targets:

Eric Bledsoe (R)- Bledsoe is the model for what kind of point guard the Lakers should be looking for.  He has tremendous athletic ability, is a lock-down defender, and isn’t afraid of the big moment.  With Randle at the four the Lakers will likely be a little light on rim protection and Bledsoe would go a long ways towards helping keep opposing guards out of the paint.  Unfortunately he is a restricted free agent but if he can be pried loose from the Suns he is a Long Term player all the way.  4 years/48 million

 Marcin Gortat- Marcin Gortat is a solid if unspectacular center but is the exactly the type of player that would work well with Randle.  He’s a good rebounder and rim protector (9.5 rebounds, 1.5 blocks) with just enough of an offensive game to keep defenses honest.  He’s been a big part of Washington’s recent success so he may require more money than the Lakers are willing to pay.  He’s also already 30 years old, so while he would be a nice guy to add for the next couple of years he isn’t someone who can be counted on to grow with Julius, and as such is a Short Term prospect.  2 Years/20 million

Lance Stephenson- Stephenson is a mere 23 years old and made tremendous progress last season on both the offensive and defensive end.  He can handle the ball, attack the basket, stretch the floor, and play pesky enough defense to get under just about anyone’s skin.  He’s truly one of the most versatile players in the league and his skills suggest that he could be a future star.  Unfortunately, all that potential is attached to the tempestuous brain of Lance Stephenson.  While Lance is known as a bit of a knuckle head and has had plenty of off-court issues his talent may be worth the risk.  Kobe’s iron fist would either alienate Stephenson or mold him into a versatile basketball monster.  Given Kobe’s success in handling Metta World Peace I’m inclined to think it will be the latter, making Stephenson a terrific Long Term player. 4 years/44 million

Ed Davis- Davis is exactly the kind of player that the Lakers have been targeting recently: young with talent and upside but didn’t pan out in his first few stops in the NBA.  While he hasn’t lived up to the hype he had after being taken #13 overall by Toronto in the 2010 draft he still has the potential to put it all together.  With the Grizzlies just committing to a contract extension with Zach Randolph one has to imagine that Ed would be excited to come LA where playing time will be a bit easier to come by.  He is still unproven so he’s a Short Term add for now, but could blossom into a keeper. 2 years/6 million

LeBron James-  Yeah realistically this isn’t going to happen, but the Lakers have cap space and James is a free agent so his name has to be mentioned here.  The only chance of getting LeBron to Laker Land would be to have enough cap space to sign him as well as one of his buddies, which would require both him and his side kick to take a fairly massive pay cut.  These days he plays the same position as Randle (PF) but it doesn’t really matter.  If he wants to come to LA you sign him and work out the fit later.  Definitely a Long Term add.  4 years/as much as he wants.

Carmelo Anthony- If Carmelo ends up in LA it’s likely that LeBron is there as well, because frankly there are better fits for both Melo (cough cough Bulls) and the Lakers.  While Carmelo is a very talented scorer he is on the wrong side of 30 and without another big name to team up with him and Kobe the Lakers won’t be contending anytime soon.  That said, if the nearly impossible happens and Melo and James decide to don the Golden Armor he is a Long Term add.  4 years/whatever LeBron doesn’t take

***SN- I think I speak for most Lakers fans when I say titles are titles and you can’t pass up the opportunity to contend, but man, James probably has more ill-will amongst the Laker fan base than anyone else in the league.  Sure, there are thousands of stories that involve the villain finding redemption by joining the hero but this situation seems closer to when Nikita Khruschev visited Disneyland.  Americans were debating how to welcome him to the park: be polite and diplomatic or beat the crap out of him while singing America the Beautiful.  In the end Disneyland nixed the visit because there was so much tension in the air.  Everyone was afraid something bad might happen if he showed up, which made sense because the Cold War was still pretty damn cold at that point (this was pre-Rocky 4,so Sylvester Stallone hadn't taught us all how to get along yet).  That’s LeBron in LA, it could be awesome but there is so much ill-will built up that if it doesn't all go according to plan it could go south very, very fast.

Mickey and a few thousand of his closest red-white-and blue American friends wanted to meet you too, comrade. 






Khris Humphries- The former Mr. Kardashian may not be a favorite of reality TV fans but he’s a serviceable NBA big man on the court.  When given minutes he is a nightly double-double threat who excels on the boards and offensively lives on the mid-range jumper.  He isn’t going to move the needle much in terms of wins and losses but the Lakers certainly could do worse in shoring up their front line.  He’s definitely a Short Term player though.  1 year/3 million

Isaiah Thomas (R)- Thomas had a breakout season with Sacramento, and while he is a restricted free agent who the Kings appear to be intent on bringing back Isiah grew up a Lakers fan and dreams of getting a contract from them.  His size (5’9’) limits his positive impact on the defensive end but on offense he is a firecracker that can get hot and nearly win games by himself.  His youth and passion for the Lakers would be a welcome addition, although the Kings would likely match any offer the Lakers would be comfortable presenting.  If he can break free from Sacramento though he would be a Long Term add.  3 years /28 million

PJ Tucker (R)- Tucker isn’t the most skilled NBA player but he makes a living on being a hustle superstar and playing sturdy defense.  Every team needs this kind of glue guy and he would quickly endear himself to the Laker faithful.  He’s restricted and likely to stay in Phoenix but if the Suns find themselves making some big moves and thus running out of cap space it’s possible that he might be available as a Short Term add.  2 years/4 million

Darren Collison- Collison recently opted out of a 1.9 million dollar payday from the Clippers and will be looking for more money and years.  While he may end up returning to the other LA team he would be a steady point guard for the Lakers to add.  He has shown in the past he has the ability to be a starting-caliber point guard, although he hasn’t done so consistently.  With Steve Nash likely to spend more time on the injured list next season than on the court Collison could be a relatively cheap young player to take the reins for a few seasons.  Given his up and down play over his career thus far though he would be a Short Term add.  2 years/8 million

While the free agent crop isn’t very plentiful this year there are still a few players that can be had to help round out the roster.  The Lakers need a bit of everything and are in no position to contend next season but still seem determined to go after the big fish anyway.  If nothing else it should be an exciting free agent season for LA. 

I’ll be back soon to examine which free agents from last year’s squad (which was just about the entire team) should be brought back as well as which free agents the Lakers need to stay away from.