Saturday, January 24, 2015

Are the Lakers Tanking?

On Friday the Lakers received the news that Kobe Bryant is most likely out for the season thanks to a torn rotator cuff.  That night the purple and gold were set to take on the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, and Coach Byron Scott decided to make drastic changes to the team's starting lineup. Scott benched Ed Davis, Wesley Johnson, and Ronnie Price in favor of Ryan Kelly, Robert Sacre, and rookie Jordan Clarkson.

While Scott claimed that these were moves he was planning on making with or without Kobe the timing does seem a bit suspect.  With a 12-32 record, good for 4th-worst in the league, the Lakers are more than halfway through the season and will clearly not be competing for a playoff spot.  If the playoffs are out of the question (and they are) then the team has significant incentive to lose as many games as possible, as their 2015 draft pick goes to the Phoenix Suns unless it falls in the top 5 thanks to the Steve Nash trade disaster.

However, with the hyper-competitive Kobe Bryant in the fold the Lakers had to do everything they could to win at all cost.  While Kobe was steadfastly supportive of Laker GM Mitch Kupchak and proudly stated time and time again that he would not seek a trade there was still pressure on the team to perform well for their star player.

They even attempted to trade for proven commodities like Rajon Rondo in order to get Kobe some help and make a push this season.  Without Bryant though that pressure is gone, and the team can focus on rebuilding.

Enter Coach Scott's lineup shuffle, which saw three players with an average age of 27.6 replaced by players with an average age of 23.  That average will drop even lower when 25 year-old Robert Sacre is replaced by Tarik Black, which Scott asserted would happen as soon as Black returns from an ankle injury.

Along with Black the fantastically named Kelly Clarkson combo figures to be a big part of the Lakers future, and giving them valuable minutes now will not only speed up their development but will also allow the team to pick up a few more valuable losses while the young bucks go through their NBA growing pains.

The Lakers, to their credit, have long been steadfastly anti-tank, but in this case they canattempt  justify their actions by explaining that the team wasn't winning anyway.  With more minutes the younger players they will be better prepared to contribute next season, which will likely be the last of Bryant's legendary career.

Of course they will also be more likely to hang onto their pick as the losses mount and teams below the Lakers in the standing begin to move up (New York has been winning recently and the Wolves have Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin, and Nikola Pekovic returning, which should increase their win total).  Expect the Lakers to downplay this benefit though, as again, they don't want to appear to be tanking.

Regardless of what they call it, the Kobe-less Lakers "youth movement" makes almost perfect sense.  There are just a couple of things that still stand out as odd about Scott's decisions, at least at first glance anyway.

Specifically, starting 27 year-old Jordan Hill over bouncy big man Ed Davis and giving the backup point guard minutes to Price instead of the 26 year-old Jeremy Lin.  However, there is method to the madness behind these calls as well.

As mentioned previously Lin and Hill are two of the most likely Lakers to be dealt prior to the trade deadline on February 19th.  By moving Hill from the Center spot to Power Forward the Lakers will be able to showcase the versatility that his jumpshot provides while still getting him the minutes needed to put up solid numbers.  If Hill proves he can effectively play both PF and C that just makes him an even more valuable trade chip.

Furthermore, shifting Ed Davis, a player the Lakers would like to keep, to the bench squad to play alongside Carlos Boozer allows him to get minutes as a Center.  While Davis has proven valuable with his rebounding, shot blocking, and efficient finishing around the rim his lack of range outside of 10 feet means that he may ultimately need to transition to the Center position full-time in order to avoid killing the team's spacing.

Davis' lack of bulk may prohibit such a move, and there is no better time than now to find out if that is the case.  If the Lakers are going to spend big money on Davis this summer (and they will have to if they want to keep him), then they need to know if he can be the team's defensive anchor.  What better way to find out if he can handle the job than by slotting him next to the defensively challenged (to put it mildly) Carlos Boozer?

Unlike Davis, who merely saw his role adjusted, Jeremy Lin suffered the indignity of being benched completely against San Antonio.  Scott did hint that Lin would play in the future and was by no way out of the lineup permanently, but the message was clear that if Lin doesn't start playing up to his potential then he won't be seeing the floor.

Most likely this isn't about turning Jeremy Lin into a valuable contributor for this season's Lakers.  Instead, it's about increasing his diminished trade value.  Currently Lin has little value around the league, so making a drastic move like benching him for an entire game makes sense.  If Scott can get Lin playing his best basketball over the coming weeks it will be easier to find a taker for the popular point guard, who the Lakers are unlikely to bring back next season.  If the move back fires and Lin sulks instead of picking up his play, well, he didn't have a ton of trade value anyway so little was lost.  It's a low risk, medium reward gamble on the Lakers part.

With their anti-tanking stance the Lakers, rightly or wrongly, won't ship players out for less than they are worth just to help the team improve their draft pick.  This tactic burned them two seasons in a row with Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, but given the precedent teams know they will have to pony up full price in order to obtain the Lakers trade assets.  If they are going to demand top value for players like Lin and Hill they will need to be producing at their highest level, which explains the motivational tactic that was Lin's one-game benching as well as Hill's transition to Power Forward.

So, are the Lakers tanking?  No, of course not, the Lakers don't tank.  They are simply building for the future by giving major minutes to younger players who just so happen to not produce a lot of wins at this stage of their careers.  In other words...yeah, they are tanking, they just won't admit it.

And it's about time.



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