Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Steve Nash: Friend or Foe?

In the 1980's the Los Angeles Lakers electrified NBA audiences with their fast-breaking "Showtime" offense.  They ran the break in a way that had never been seen before, whipping their fans into a frenzy and making the Lakers into the league's most popular franchise.  The driving force behind the Showtime offense was none other than Magic Johnson, who had a knack for making passes that no one saw coming.

In an era where the NBA was obsessed with the number of points a player scored Magic made passing into an art form.  Kids on playgrounds everywhere tried to mimic the no-look pass and get out and run like the Showtime Lakers.  Magic's influence went beyond his team's wins and losses, he changed the sport itself.

                                            And changed Jack Nicholson from crazy person into mascot.

Since those glorious days in the 1980's only one player has been able to make passing cool again: Steve Nash.

Nash's resume reads like one that is the stuff of basketball dreams: 8-time All-Star, 7-time All-NBA, and the cherry on top: 2-time MVP.  He was the engine of the "Seven Seconds or Less" Suns teams that revolutionized NBA offenses and made terms like "stretch 4" part of the NBA lexicon.  Perhaps more importantly Nash proved that a pass-first point guard can not only succeed in today's NBA, he can thrive.  In an era when highlight packages are focused on dunks and aerial acrobatics Steve Nash showcased a below-the-rim game based on footwork, spacing, and great fundamentals.  He used his passing to add sizzle, and while he didn't make the passes that no one saw coming like Magic could he did make the passes that no one could stop.

Nash played the game in such a cerebral way that he made his athletic shortcomings all but disappear.  Players loved to play with him because they knew that on a Nash-led team they were going to get the ball in the best spot possible and would put up great stats as a result.  Watching his Suns teams play was eerily reminiscent of a modern day Showtime, albeit with more emphasis on three-point shooting and without the swarming defense that Pat Riley's teams displayed.

So when the Lakers traded for Steve Nash two summers ago it seemed like a match made in heaven.  A foursome of Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard (who was acquired shortly after Nash) were poised to rule the NBA, and when Nash's former coach Mike D'Antoni was added it appeared that the Showtime-era Lakers style would indeed be resurrected.

We all know what happened instead.

                                                                   Pretty much

Nash spent the year bouncing on and off the injured list while he struggled to develop any chemistry with Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard.  It became so bad that Nash was relegated to the role of spot-up shooter, as Bryant and the team as a whole were having more success with the ball in Kobe's hands instead of Nash's.

While there were many problems facing the Lakers during the 2012-2013 season for Nash perhaps the most difficult adjustment was to the lack of screens being set for him.  Nash always thrived in the pick and roll situation, using screens to create the separation from his defender that he needed in order to operate.  Despite the fact that many assumed Nash and Howard would be a perfect pairing Howard, who was recovering from back surgery, flat out refused to set screens.  He would often slip the screen in order to avoid contact with Nash's defender, which can be a useful tactic but as soon as defenses caught on it left Nash out to dry trying to beat his man one-on-one.

That summer Dwight showed his true colors and abandoned the Lakers to leave for Houston, no doubt concerned about the durability of Nash and Kobe Bryant, who was recovering from achilles surgery.  With Dwight gone and Kobe injured it was time for Nash to return to his MVSteve form and run the show.  The Lakers spent the summer adding athletic shooters and stretch players like Wesley Johnson, Nick Young, and Ryan Kelly in the hopes that they would fit into Mike D'Antoni's system and allow Nash to bring out the best in them.

Alas, Nash (and seemingly everyone else on the team) suffered through one injury after another and the Lakers ended up posting the worst record in franchise history.  While the team's record may not have been all his fault a closer look at the numbers revealed something more alarming: In an admittedly small sample size of just 15 games Nash posted the worst numbers of his career by far.

The typically can't-miss shooter shot just 38% for the season, and while that could be contributed to his chronic back problems the eye-test showed that he was a shell of his former self.  When the Lakers needed the Steve Nash of old all they got was old Steve Nash.  To most observers it was clear that Nash had crossed over the line and was no longer an even respectable NBA player anymore.

The history books are littered with players who stayed a year or two longer than they should have.  We struggle and grimace right along with them, wishing that we could turn back the hands of time and allow them to become the player they once were.  Since we can't, the only thing we can do is hope that they allow themselves to go out gracefully.  Tap out.  Retire.  When the time is right.

That just isn't Steve Nash though.  It wouldn't be true to the warrior mentality and rigorous physical regimen that has allowed him to sustain such a long and successful career.  He's determined to go out on his own terms, after proving once and for all that he still has it.

Here's the thing though: he's killing the Lakers by doing it.

Under just about any other scenario seeing a player do everything they can to continue playing the sport he loves would be a heartwarming story.  However, in the NBA there is such a thing as a salary cap (sorta) and because of that Nash's salary is taking up valuable space that could be used on a younger, more productive player, which is something that the Lakers desperately need.

While this alone isn't reason for Laker fans to turn on Nash we can't forget that during an interview last season he admitted that part of the reason that he isn't retiring is because of the $9.7 million owed to him.  He stated “The reality is, I’m not going to retire because I want the money.”.  

Obviously this doesn't sound great to fans, especially considering that Nash has earned over $125 million over the course of his career.  That's not to say that his statement is completely damning, but is does come across as greedy considering that the vast majority of fans will never come anywhere close to earning that kind of money.

Nash has reportedly got himself in absolutely tremendous shape this offseason and is doing everything he can to have a successful year, which aren't the actions of a guy who is truly just about the money.  Still, the statement that he made stings.

To make matters worse the Lakers traded away their 2015 first round pick to the Suns in the deal that landed them Nash.  At the time no one thought that it would be a strong pick but with the Lakers looking like long shots to make the playoffs that pick has become a very valuable one.  The pick is only top 5 protected, and given the Lakers luck in recent years and their current respectable-but-not-good roster they will end up in the 6-8 range.

By trying to hang on and refusing to retire Nash is all but ensuring that the Lakers will have a worse record than if his salary cap space was free to be used on a more productive player.  It's an odd situation, but Nash's decision to continue playing helps the Suns much more than it helps the Lakers.

The real tough part for Lakers fans to swallow is that Nash didn't attempt to qualify for medical retirement.  Most fans understand that walking away from over $9 million isn't easy, even if you are a multi-millionaire already.  Furthermore, hanging up his sneakers after such a horrendous year would be difficult for Nash to live with, as he clearly feels he has something left in the tank.  However, had he applied for medical retirement as a result of his chronic nerve-root issues then not only would the Lakers have received the cap space they so desperately need but Nash himself would still have received his full salary.  Win-win.

Of course to do this Steve would have had to accept that last season's injury-plagued, 15 game showing would be the last thing that fans would remember about him.  It's never easy to go out on the bottom, but for the Lakers it clearly would have been the best outcome and very likely would have allowed the team to be a playoff contender this season.  Over the past few years though nothing has broken the way they needed it to so Nash's decision was just one more unlucky outcome in a long line of them.

*** The CP3 theft.  Mike Brown.  Mike D'Antoni.  Nash's broken leg.  Dwight's back and lack of heart.  Kobe's achilles.  Dwight's cowardice.  Nash's nerve root issues.  Pau's everything.  Kobe's tibial plateau fracture.  Dr. Buss' death.  The entire Western Conference becoming stacked.  The list goes on and on.  Lakers fans would ask what else could go wrong but at this point that would seem to be tempting fate. 

Even Laker-haters are starting to admit that the Lakers deserve a little good luck now.  Never thought that would happen!

So how should Lakers fans treat Nash?  Assuming the rumors about Nash's improved health are true then fans should support him through it all.  Cheer him on, even if it's only because of the player he was and not the player he currently is.  Even in his diminished state Nash can still help the team if he can stay healthy.  If he ends up on the injured list for the majority of the season though and the losses start mounting though even Nash himself has to realize that a solid amount of blame will be placed on him, and rightfully so.

For Nash's sake and the Lakers sake let's hope that he can return to form.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Predictions for Next Season

We are in the midst of a strange, uncomfortable era of Lakers basketball.  As much as Lakers fans love to spout the "championship or bust" rhetoric it's clear that this season's squad is going to fall far short of those aspirations.  Fans do understand that every team has down seasons and the Lakers are no exception, but still something feels different this time.  The fan base is shaken, unsure of what comes next.  Of course they are right to feel that way, as over the past few years a series of mistakes compounded by the outright villainy of David Stern's infamous "basketball reasons" veto has left the team in the worst position in...well, ever.

Fans were tortured during the free agency period with rumors of Carmelo Anthony joining Kobe in LA but it wasn't meant to be (might be for the best).  Then there was the group of young guns with plenty of potential, guys that would bring Laker fans hope for the future.  Surely, Mitch would land at least one of Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas, Greg Monroe, Kyle Lowry, or Lance Stephenson.  Once again, misses all around.  

The team was left to pick through re-treads from last season and cast-offs from various franchises with high aspirations.  The Lakers watched All-Star big man Pau Gasol walk out the door for less money in Chicago just one season after watching the skittish Dwight Howard do the same.  Troubling times in Laker land to be sure.

Even while fans are uneasy though there is belief around the league that someday the Lakers will be back on top, if for no other reason than they are the Lakers and winning is what they do.  It may take longer than anyone expected and longer than the Lakers faithful are comfortable with but someday the sun will once again shine on the Staples center.  

There will be no parade down Figueroa street, and no one can truly say when we will see one again.  However, what can do is focus on this season, the here and now.  As Phil Jackson would say, "Live in the moment".

                                       
***Phil truly was the best.  Part motivator, part teacher, full-time media abuser.  Aside from Greg Popovich no one could play with the media quite like Phil could.  He wasn't the best X's and O's coach nor did he pretend to be.  Instead he focused on the X's and O's of life, on who his players were as people and what inspired them.  

I'm still in shock over the Lakers letting him leave for New York.  He's one of a kind and in the top 3 of Lakers I'd want to sit down and have a drink with.  (the others: Kareem Abdul-Jabaar and Magic Johnson.  So much wisdom in that group.  

He also coached from a chair that can only be described as a throne.  Phil Jackson: doing it before "Game of Thrones" was cool.    


So what can we realistically expect from the 2014-2015 Lakers squad?  On paper the team doesn't look very promising.  This is the lineup that we have to look forward to on opening day (assuming Michael Beasley doesn't end up in a Lakers jersey as rumored, which I'm pretty sure would be a sign of the apocalypse):

PG: Jeremy Lin, Steve Nash 
SG: Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, Jordan Clarkson
SF: Xavier Henry, Wesley Johnson
PF: Carlos Boozer, Julius Randle, Ryan Kelly
C: Jordan Hill, Ed Davis, Robert Sacre

For one thing, it's a near-certainty that next season's squad will be healthier than last.  With 220 man-games lost due to injury the Lakers were attacked by the injury bug harder than any team in the league.  It was a season filled with one improbable injury after another, to the point where each additional call of "Medic!" could only be greeted with disbelief.  It was a nearly unheard of bout of bad luck that is unlikely to repeat itself.

The Lakers do have elder statesmen Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash on the squad, and neither can be counted on to play a full season at this point.  Aside from them though we should see a much healthier team and therefore a more consistent one as well.

Speaking of the two Lakers who are a little long in the tooth, Kobe and to a lesser extent Nash will be important to the overall success of the team next season.  After missing nearly all of last season no one really knows what Kobe has left at this point.  If he can somehow come back to be the Kobe we saw pre-injury then this Laker team may have an outside shot at the playoffs.  If he's the guy we saw for 6 games last season, who rushed back from injury and didn't quite have his legs under him, the Lakers will struggle and likely end up giving the Phoenix Suns a fantastic draft pick next summer (the Lakers pick going to Phoenix from the Nash trade is only protected 1-5).


Steve Nash played in just 15 games last season and put up the worst numbers of his career since his rookie season.  It's extremely unlikely that he can be much of a positive impact on the floor at this stage in his career, but he can be useful as a mentor to young guards like Jeremy Lin and Jordan Clarkson.  Nash also drew the ire of Lakers fans when he admitted to trying to play one more season just to make sure he collects the entire $9.7 million remaining on his contract.  He has a lot of work to do if he wants to go out as a fan favorite.  Best-case scenario would be Nash logging 15-20 minutes per game as Lin's backup and putting up efficient offensive numbers.  Worst case?  Well it's hard to imagine things getting much worse than last season, but if Nash were to once again look completely done on the court and still push to get to the 10-game minimum to avoid medical retirement and rob the Lakers of cap relief then it would be rather difficult for him to show his face around Los Angeles again.

Outside of Kobe and Nash the Lakers squad is littered with players who have little chance of reaching All-Star status and no chance of becoming the superstar that the Lakers need.  Ok, Julius "The Juggernaut" Randle has a shot at becoming an All-Star level player, but he's at least a few years removed from that level.  The team is counting on guys like Jordan Hill, Ed Davis, Carlos Boozer, and Jeremy Lin all having fantastic seasons (in contract years no less), which may be a bit of wishful thinking on their part.

As such the Lakers won't be winning any games on pure talent like they are used to.  Instead they will find themselves in the relatively unfamiliar position of underdog against the majority of the league.  Fortunately they have hired a coach in Byron Scott who is willing to get his hands dirty to build a team that will out-work their opponents, using a defense-first strategy designed to keep them in games that they wouldn't be able to based on firepower alone.

Scott's no-nonsense, defense-or-die approach is the exact opposite of Mike D'Anonti's "Seven Seconds or Less" strategy he used over the last two seasons.  Lakers fans grew tired of seeing D'Antoni's team give up huge scoring runs to anyone and everyone, and if nothing else Scott should put an end to that.  That's not to say the Lakers will suddenly become a lockdown team, as they are still fielding a lineup with shockingly few even adequate defenders, but Scott will at least bring them back to respectable levels.  
Byron Scott: At least he's not Mike D'Antoni

As fans last season we were let down.  We saw a squad that was besieged by injuries, Kobe-less, Nash-less, and poorly coached.  D'Antoni tried to force square pegs into round holes and it was often painful to watch.

So what can we expect from this season?  For one expect a new defensive intensity but at the cost of a little bit of the team's offense.  Expect to see Jeremy Lin have a fantastic season and quickly become a fan favorite.  Expect to see the log jam at the PC/C positions battle each other all season long.  Boozer is fighting for his next contract, Randle, Davis and Kelly are hoping to live up to potential, and Jordan Hill aims to prove he's a starting-quality center and worthy of his big contract.  Expect to see Steve Nash bounce in and out of lineups while Jordan Clarkson learns the ropes.  Expect Xavier Henry to endear himself to Lakers fans once again and ultimately win the starting SF spot with his defensive tenacity.  And lastly, expect Kobe Bryant to move heaven and earth in his attempt to return to form for his final two seasons in the NBA.  With Kobe in particular it's either going to be a season of celebration as an icon proves he's not going to go away quietly...or one of sadness as we watch a star fade.

Prediction: 36-46, miss the playoffs and hand a #10 pick to Phoenix.