With free agency only a few hours away Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak has
promised to “go all out” in his efforts to add talent to the Lakers. With a skeleton roster desperately in need of
youth and athleticism Kupchak will certainly be a busy man. Earlier
this week we discussed which free agents he should target as well as which of
the Lakers own free agents he should consider bringing back. However there is a 3rd group that
must be addressed: the free agents to stay away from.
Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement are there much
stiffer penalties for exceeding the luxury tax limit than there were previously,
particularly for teams that go over year after year. The Lakers, not coincidentally, should drop
below the tax line this year and will likely stay there until they are ready to
contend for a title. Avoiding the luxury tax was something
that never concerned them under the old, less restrictive agreement, but this is a brand new world under this CBA.
These harsher penalties haven’t just impacted the Lakers
though. Indeed, they have had a ripple
effect across the entire league. Teams
are now extremely cautious about taking on long-term salary and the value of 1st
round picks (because of their low salaries compared to talent level) has never been
higher. Due to this the Lakers have less
realistic trade options available to them, as simply absorbing the bloated
salaries of overpaid players is not quite as appealing as it used to be. With luxury tax penalties the Lakers could
end up paying as much as 4 times a player’s salary in taxes should they
consistently exceed the line.
This also means that teams like the Lakers are more likely
to hang on to their expiring contracts in order to reap the benefit of the cap
space they can free up. In 2007 the
Lakers were able to turn Kwame Brown’s large expiring contract (and other spare
parts, like a guy named Marc Gasol) into Pau Gasol in a deal with the Memphis
Grizzlies. Pau helped lead the Lakers to
3 straight finals appearances and 2 consecutive titles, making the trade a
steal for LA.
This year the Lakers have Steve Nash’s similarly large
expiring deal but due to the new rules they don’t expect to trade him in a Gasol-style deal. Instead Nash’s nearly 10 million
dollar contract will likely only serve to clog cap space and prevent more
players from being added to LA’s depleted squad via free agency, while the team
will look forward to the cap space that his expiring contract will provide next summer.
***To this day Steve
Nash is the best asset that the Suns have (well ok, maybe third best behind
Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe). Not only
does his contract prevent the Lakers from adding talent (thus allowing the Suns
to have less competition for free agents) but the Suns also own the Lakers 2015
draft pick, which will likely be a valuable one thanks to the Lakers struggles
caused partially by Nash’s inability to either A. Stay healthy or B. Face
reality and accept medical retirement, thus clearing his contract from the
Lakers cap.
At this point it’s
completely reasonable to assume that Nash is in fact a double agent. I bet if we checked his bank account there
would be a number of checks coming in from Suns owner Robert Sarver with “ LOL
they will never figure it out!” written in the memo line.
As strict as the new CBA is any mistakes made by a GM can be
compounded very quickly. The most
valuable players in the NBA under the new system are rookies on their first
contracts and superstars who can lead their teams deep into the playoffs, thus
providing more value than even a max contract can adequately compensate
(currently there are two such players: LeBron James and Kevin Durant). Having either group under contract is a
relatively safe gamble to make. Outside
of those two groups though things get a bit tricky.
Where GMs can really get in trouble is by giving max or
near-max money to guys who aren’t superstars but are actually a level or two
below them. For example, Pau Gasol is a
fantastic player who has been a big part of the Lakers for the past 7
years. The Lakers rewarded him for his
play with a contract paying him $20 million per year, and this summer he is a free
agent. Technically a max contract for
him would be even more than the $20+ million that he made last year. Again, Pau is a great player but at his age a
max contract for him would nearly ensure that his team would not have the
requisite cap space remaining to build a contender.
Under the new CBA one could even argue that a prime Gasol
wouldn’t be worth that contract. While
it isn’t likely that a GM will throw that kind of money at him he is still a
big name and you never know what will happen when a team feeling the pressure
to make a move will do something foolish.
This is precisely the kind of mistake that the Lakers cannot make. There will be pressure on them to make
something happen but they don’t have the luxury of overpaying for talent anymore.
***They are already
eating up half their cap overpaying still-recovering Kobe and secret Sun Steve
Nash. When Kobe was given $24 million
per year the simultaneous facepalms from
Lakers fans could be heard world-wide.
With all that said let’s take a look at the players who
Mitch Kupchak needs to pass on in free agency:
Kyle Lowry- Kyle
Lowry had himself one hell of a season last year. He posted career highs in nearly every category,
led an over-achieving Toronto team to the playoffs, and proved once and for all
that he’s a starting-caliber point guard in the NBA. He should have been an All Star.
So that’s the problem?
Well first of all he averaged more minutes than any other season before,
which means all of his numbers should be expected
to go up. By averaging all of his stats
on a per 40 minute basis we can compare apples to apples and see that while
Lowry still had a very nice season he didn’t really make that big of a leap
aside from his scoring, turnovers, and usage rate. That’s not to knock Lowry, he still had a
great year and his efficiency was the biggest complaint about his game, so for
him to raise his field goal percentage (while being a bigger part of the
Raptors offense) and lower his turnovers is a big deal.
Where things get tricky though is that Lowry will reportedly
be looking for a long-term contract in the $12 million per year range. While his salary last season at just over $6
million was something of a bargain he would move into the overpaid category at
$12 million. He’s also 28 years old, which means
that by the end of his contract he will be well into his 30s, which is
typically when point guards see their impact takes a nose dive. This also seems to happen when star point guards sign with the Lakers (see Nash, Steve and Payton, Gary).
When "The Glove" became "The Mitten"
Put it all together and you have yourself a guy that is a
fantastic player but just not the kind that the Lakers need right now. They need bargains with room to grow, not guys
near the end of their prime that just put up big numbers in a contract
year.
Greg Monroe- Now
here’s a guy who would make sense for the Lakers, right? He’s a young and extremely skilled big man
who is tough to stop in the post. Monroe
has moves and counter-moves that allow him to get his shot off easily against
just about anyone. Even though he hasn’t
blown up the way some predicted following his rookie season he still has some serious
value as a potential All-Star based on his scoring ability alone.
However, the reason why Mitch needs to put Greg Monroe on
his “Do Not Call” list has nothing to do with his ability on offense and
everything to do with his defense. Monroe
is a decent enough defender but it’s become clear that his most effective
position on the court is Center, which is a huge problem for the Lakers because
he isn’t a shot blocker.
Some teams can get away with having a center who isn’t great
at protecting the rim by making up for it with a power forward who does, like
Oklahoma City with their combo of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka. The Lakers, however, just drafted their power
forward of the future in Julius Randle, who like Monroe is not a shot
blocker. When Randle is out backup
power forward Ryan Kelly comes in, but he isn’t great at being the last line of
defense either.
The coup de grace comes from the fact that Monroe is a
restricted free agent, meaning that unless he is being seriously overpaid
Detroit will simply match the offer after taking the full 3 days to twiddle
their thumbs and laugh while the Lakers miss out on other free agents because
their money is tied up with Monroe. As I
mentioned in my free agent targets piece if the Lakers are going after any
restricted free agent this summer it needs to be Eric Bledsoe. Let someone else overpay Greg Monroe.
Paul Pierce- Paul
Pierce may have grown up a Laker fan but he spent the majority of his lengthy
career playing for the hated Celtics.
Seeing him in a Lakers jersey would be as infuriating as, oh I don’t
know, Shaq ending his career as a Celtic or something…what? That really happened? I had hoped it was one of those Newhart-esque
situations where I dreamt the whole thing.
Anyway, the Lakers need young, athletic, cheap players who
have plenty of room to grow as professionals.
Pierce is the exact opposite of all of those things. He’s still a big name that will make the casual
fans ears perk up but he’s a terrible fit otherwise. Pass.
Channing Frye- Channing
Frye inexplicably opted out of a nearly $7 million pay day with the Suns to
become a free agent and is going to make an excellent addition to whatever team
lands him. He’s a stretch 4 who overcame
a heart condition to reclaim his position as one of the best three point
shooting bigs in the league and a class act.
The Lakers have money to spend on free agents but unfortunately for
Channing they are no longer employing Mike D’Antoni as their coach, which means
that his shooting and spacing contributions would be significantly less valuable
in the standard 2 post offense that we can assume the Lakers will run.
When you add in that the Lakers already have a young, up –and-coming
stretch 4 in Ryan Kelly it becomes clear that while Frye is a classy veteran
and a locker room leader there just isn’t a place for him in the Golden Armor.
Luol Deng- In “Raiders
of the Lost Ark” Indiana Jones was introduced to audiences somewhere in the
middle of his career as an Archaelogist/Treasure Hunter/Nazi face melter. To describe just how many scrapes Indy has
been through and how badly his body is beat Harrison Ford utters
the immortal line, “It’s not the years, it’s the mileage”, indicating that
while he is still relatively young his body is breaking down. Unfortunately for Luol Deng it’s the years AND
the mileage, which makes him less like “Raiders” Indy and more like the version we saw
in “The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”…you know, the one that can never be
unseen no matter how hard you scrub your eyes (I tried).
To his credit Deng is a solid player that plays hard every night
and has been considered a fringe All-Star for much of his career. He just isn’t a guy that really moves the
needle in terms of wins and losses (but he does expect to be paid as one). He’s turning 30 next year and has played
11 years in the league already with several of them under the command of Coach
Tom Thibodeau, who would play his starters for 50 minutes a game if it wasn’t
for the fact that NBA games only last 48.
His odometer, age and likely too-high salary scream “let
someone else pay me”, and hopefully the Lakers hear this message loud and
clear.
The Lakers have no interest in wallowing in mediocrity or
wasting the final bit of brilliance in Kobe Bryant’s amazing career. However, motivation must not turn to desperation. Mitch Kupchak needs to weigh his free agent
decisions carefully as any more mistakes will simply lengthen the Lakers stay
in the league’s cellar. Let’s hope that
he is up to the task. If not then Jeanie
Buss needs to grab a ruler and slap Mitch’s wrist with it every time he reaches
for the phone and says “Hey Paul Pierce still has something left, right?”. He will learn eventually.
The NBA free agent
frenzy starts at midnight ET on July 1st, follow me on twitter
@16ringsNBA for updates on the Lakers and what moves they are making.