Monday, June 30, 2014

Run Far Away From These Free Agents

With free agency only a few hours away Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak has promised to “go all out” in his efforts to add talent to the Lakers.  With a skeleton roster desperately in need of youth and athleticism Kupchak will certainly be a busy man.   Earlier this week we discussed which free agents he should target as well as which of the Lakers own free agents he should consider bringing back.  However there is a 3rd group that must be addressed: the free agents to stay away from. 

Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement are there much stiffer penalties for exceeding the luxury tax limit than there were previously, particularly for teams that go over year after year.  The Lakers, not coincidentally, should drop below the tax line this year and will likely stay there until they are ready to contend for a title.  Avoiding the luxury tax was something that never concerned them under the old, less restrictive agreement, but this is a brand new world under this CBA.

These harsher penalties haven’t just impacted the Lakers though.  Indeed, they have had a ripple effect across the entire league.  Teams are now extremely cautious about taking on long-term salary and the value of 1st round picks (because of their low salaries compared to talent level) has never been higher.  Due to this the Lakers have less realistic trade options available to them, as simply absorbing the bloated salaries of overpaid players is not quite as appealing as it used to be.  With luxury tax penalties the Lakers could end up paying as much as 4 times a player’s salary in taxes should they consistently exceed the line.

This also means that teams like the Lakers are more likely to hang on to their expiring contracts in order to reap the benefit of the cap space they can free up.  In 2007 the Lakers were able to turn Kwame Brown’s large expiring contract (and other spare parts, like a guy named Marc Gasol) into Pau Gasol in a deal with the Memphis Grizzlies.  Pau helped lead the Lakers to 3 straight finals appearances and 2 consecutive titles, making the trade a steal for LA. 

This year the Lakers have Steve Nash’s similarly large expiring deal but due to the new rules they don’t expect to trade him in a Gasol-style deal.  Instead Nash’s nearly 10 million dollar contract will likely only serve to clog cap space and prevent more players from being added to LA’s depleted squad via free agency, while the team will look forward to the cap space that his expiring contract will provide next summer.   

***To this day Steve Nash is the best asset that the Suns have (well ok, maybe third best behind Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe).  Not only does his contract prevent the Lakers from adding talent (thus allowing the Suns to have less competition for free agents) but the Suns also own the Lakers 2015 draft pick, which will likely be a valuable one thanks to the Lakers struggles caused partially by Nash’s inability to either A. Stay healthy or B. Face reality and accept medical retirement, thus clearing his contract from the Lakers cap. 

At this point it’s completely reasonable to assume that Nash is in fact a double agent.  I bet if we checked his bank account there would be a number of checks coming in from Suns owner Robert Sarver with “ LOL they will never figure it out!” written in the memo line.
 
As strict as the new CBA is any mistakes made by a GM can be compounded very quickly.  The most valuable players in the NBA under the new system are rookies on their first contracts and superstars who can lead their teams deep into the playoffs, thus providing more value than even a max contract can adequately compensate (currently there are two such players: LeBron James and Kevin Durant).   Having either group under contract is a relatively safe gamble to make.  Outside of those two groups though things get a bit tricky.

Where GMs can really get in trouble is by giving max or near-max money to guys who aren’t superstars but are actually a level or two below them.  For example, Pau Gasol is a fantastic player who has been a big part of the Lakers for the past 7 years.  The Lakers rewarded him for his play with a contract paying him $20 million per year, and this summer he is a free agent.  Technically a max contract for him would be even more than the $20+ million that he made last year.  Again, Pau is a great player but at his age a max contract for him would nearly ensure that his team would not have the requisite cap space remaining to build a contender. 

Under the new CBA one could even argue that a prime Gasol wouldn’t be worth that contract.  While it isn’t likely that a GM will throw that kind of money at him he is still a big name and you never know what will happen when a team feeling the pressure to make a move will do something foolish.  This is precisely the kind of mistake that the Lakers cannot make.  There will be pressure on them to make something happen but they don’t have the luxury of overpaying for talent anymore.

***They are already eating up half their cap overpaying still-recovering Kobe and secret Sun Steve Nash.   When Kobe was given $24 million per year the simultaneous facepalms  from Lakers fans could be heard world-wide. 

With all that said let’s take a look at the players who Mitch Kupchak needs to pass on in free agency:

Kyle Lowry- Kyle Lowry had himself one hell of a season last year.  He posted career highs in nearly every category, led an over-achieving Toronto team to the playoffs, and proved once and for all that he’s a starting-caliber point guard in the NBA.  He should have been an All Star. 

So that’s the problem?  Well first of all he averaged more minutes than any other season before, which means all of his numbers should be expected to go up.  By averaging all of his stats on a per 40 minute basis we can compare apples to apples and see that while Lowry still had a very nice season he didn’t really make that big of a leap aside from his scoring, turnovers, and usage rate.  That’s not to knock Lowry, he still had a great year and his efficiency was the biggest complaint about his game, so for him to raise his field goal percentage (while being a bigger part of the Raptors offense) and lower his turnovers is a big deal. 

Where things get tricky though is that Lowry will reportedly be looking for a long-term contract in the $12 million per year range.  While his salary last season at just over $6 million was something of a bargain he would move into the overpaid category at $12 million.  He’s also 28 years old, which means that by the end of his contract he will be well into his 30s, which is typically when point guards see their impact takes a nose dive.  This also seems to happen when star point guards sign with the Lakers (see Nash, Steve and Payton, Gary). 

                                                     When "The Glove" became "The Mitten" 

Put it all together and you have yourself a guy that is a fantastic player but just not the kind that the Lakers need right now.  They need bargains with room to grow, not guys near the end of their prime that just put up big numbers in a contract year.    

Greg Monroe- Now here’s a guy who would make sense for the Lakers, right?  He’s a young and extremely skilled big man who is tough to stop in the post.  Monroe has moves and counter-moves that allow him to get his shot off easily against just about anyone.  Even though he hasn’t blown up the way some predicted following his rookie season he still has some serious value as a potential All-Star based on his scoring ability alone. 

However, the reason why Mitch needs to put Greg Monroe on his “Do Not Call” list has nothing to do with his ability on offense and everything to do with his defense.  Monroe is a decent enough defender but it’s become clear that his most effective position on the court is Center, which is a huge problem for the Lakers because he isn’t a shot blocker. 

Some teams can get away with having a center who isn’t great at protecting the rim by making up for it with a power forward who does, like Oklahoma City with their combo of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka.  The Lakers, however, just drafted their power forward of the future in Julius Randle, who like Monroe is not a shot blocker.  When Randle is out backup power forward Ryan Kelly comes in, but he isn’t great at being the last line of defense either. 

The coup de grace comes from the fact that Monroe is a restricted free agent, meaning that unless he is being seriously overpaid Detroit will simply match the offer after taking the full 3 days to twiddle their thumbs and laugh while the Lakers miss out on other free agents because their money is tied up with Monroe.  As I mentioned in my free agent targets piece if the Lakers are going after any restricted free agent this summer it needs to be Eric Bledsoe.  Let someone else overpay Greg Monroe.   

Paul Pierce- Paul Pierce may have grown up a Laker fan but he spent the majority of his lengthy career playing for the hated Celtics.  Seeing him in a Lakers jersey would be as infuriating as, oh I don’t know, Shaq ending his career as a Celtic or something…what?  That really happened?  I had hoped it was one of those Newhart-esque situations where I dreamt the whole thing. 

Anyway, the Lakers need young, athletic, cheap players who have plenty of room to grow as professionals.  Pierce is the exact opposite of all of those things.  He’s still a big name that will make the casual fans ears perk up but he’s a terrible fit otherwise.  Pass.

Channing Frye- Channing Frye inexplicably opted out of a nearly $7 million pay day with the Suns to become a free agent and is going to make an excellent addition to whatever team lands him.  He’s a stretch 4 who overcame a heart condition to reclaim his position as one of the best three point shooting bigs in the league and a class act.  The Lakers have money to spend on free agents but unfortunately for Channing they are no longer employing Mike D’Antoni as their coach, which means that his shooting and spacing contributions would be significantly less valuable in the standard 2 post offense that we can assume the Lakers will run. 

When you add in that the Lakers already have a young, up –and-coming stretch 4 in Ryan Kelly it becomes clear that while Frye is a classy veteran and a locker room leader there just isn’t a place for him in the Golden Armor.  

Luol Deng- In “Raiders of the Lost Ark” Indiana Jones was introduced to audiences somewhere in the middle of his career as an Archaelogist/Treasure Hunter/Nazi face melter.  To describe just how many scrapes Indy has been through and how badly his body is beat Harrison Ford utters the immortal line, “It’s not the years, it’s the mileage”, indicating that while he is still relatively young his body is breaking down.  Unfortunately for Luol Deng it’s the years AND the mileage, which makes him less like “Raiders” Indy and more like the version we saw in “The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”…you know, the one that can never be unseen no matter how hard you scrub your eyes (I tried).  
  
To his credit Deng is a solid player that plays hard every night and has been considered a fringe All-Star for much of his career.  He just isn’t a guy that really moves the needle in terms of wins and losses (but he does expect to be paid as one).  He’s turning 30 next year and has played 11 years in the league already with several of them under the command of Coach Tom Thibodeau, who would play his starters for 50 minutes a game if it wasn’t for the fact that NBA games only last 48.   

His odometer, age and likely too-high salary scream “let someone else pay me”, and hopefully the Lakers hear this message loud and clear.   

The Lakers have no interest in wallowing in mediocrity or wasting the final bit of brilliance in Kobe Bryant’s amazing career.  However, motivation must not turn to desperation.  Mitch Kupchak needs to weigh his free agent decisions carefully as any more mistakes will simply lengthen the Lakers stay in the league’s cellar.  Let’s hope that he is up to the task.  If not then Jeanie Buss needs to grab a ruler and slap Mitch’s wrist with it every time he reaches for the phone and says “Hey Paul Pierce still has something left, right?”.  He will learn eventually.   

The NBA free agent frenzy starts at midnight ET on July 1st, follow me on twitter @16ringsNBA for updates on the Lakers and what moves they are making.


Saturday, June 28, 2014

What Should The Lakers Do With Their Free Agents?

Last offseason the Lakers were faced with a number of difficult decisions that would cast a shadow over the 2013/2014 season.  Following Dwight Howard's tail-between-the-legs defection and Kobe Bryant's achilles surgery it was apparent that the team would not be contending for a title.  With only Robert Sacre, Steve Nash, Steve Blake, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Hill, and Pau Gasol under contract (and healthy) GM Mitch Kupchak had his work cut out for him.  The Lakers are a franchise that is used to playing for championships but Mitch along with Jim and Jeannie Buss (the Laker "brain trust") opted to take a step back last season to catch their breath and hopefully re-tool the roster.

With limited assets and next to no salary cap flexibility Mitch set out to fill the remaining roster spots with a specific type of player: young, talented prospects who had washed out with other teams in the league.  The idea was that perhaps an overlooked diamond in the rough could be found.  After all, the NBA is full of players who simply needed a change of scenery in order to realize their potential, such as Ben Wallace, Trevor Ariza, and to the chagrin of Celtics fans, future finals MVP Chauncey Billups.  Finding one or two such players would be a major boost for the Lakers in their quest to return to the top of the league in spite of the oppressive new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which aimed to limit their ability to outspend their rivals for talent.

Kupchak and the Lakers scouting department scoured the depths of the free agent pool and emerged with Nick Young, Chris Kaman, Wesley Johnson, Shawn Williams (later waved), Xavier Henry, and former Laker Jordan Farmar.  At the trade deadline they continued their search by trading steady point guard Steve Blake to the Golden State Warriors in order to get a look at hyper-athlete Kent Bazemore and shooting guard MarShon Brooks.

The Lakers also signed undrafted rookie Elias Harris (later waved) and their only pick of the 2013 draft, second-rounder Ryan Kelly, giving them even more young talent to work with.

It was expected that this "Island of Misfit Toys" version of the Lakers would not be very friendly on the win column, although it's doubtful that Mitch and the powers that be ever expected it to get as bad as it did.  Following an unprecedented rash of injuries the Lakers suffered through the worst season in franchise history, finishing with record of 27-55.  The injury bug was so merciless that LA lead the league in games lost due to injury by a wide margin, which made the already difficult task of winning games with an inexperienced lineup become an impossible one.  

***Coach Mike D'Antoni, whose offensive brilliance with the "Seven Seconds or Less" Suns teams started something of a revolution, also didn't help matters by continuing his M.O. of not to preaching defense.  The entire league has incorporated aspects of the D'Antoni offense but most teams (most notably the NBA Champion Spurs) have taken things a step further and found ways to play high-level defense in addition to using the drive-and-kick, fast break aspects of the SSOL offense.  

It's like when Myspace came out and brought social networking to a wider audience than ever, and then Facebook came along and did everything Myspace did but better.  Myspace got cocky, sold to Rupert Murdoch for roughly a bajillion dollars, and stopped pushing forward.  As a result Mark Zuckerberg and his hoodie kicked their butts with their own concepts (it could be argued that twitter/tumblr/whatever else kids are into these days is now doing the same to Facebook...it's the circle of life).  Myspace quickly became a relic while Facebook and other contemporaries flourished.  Mike D'Antoni is Myspace.  He also looks like the Pringles guy.   
          
Fear not though, there is a silver lining to all the hardships endured last year.  By rounding out their roster with cast-offs the Lakers did receive a number of benefits.  First and foremost they landed Julius Randle with the #7 pick in the draft, the highest draft pick the franchise has had in over 30 years.

All the expiring deals also helped free up cap space so that the Lakers can make a run at superstar-level players when they become available.  Although they are unlikely to be reeled in this summer Mitch Kupchak is reportedly planning on trying to lure the likes Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh to LA.  The addition of any one of those players would certainly speed up the Lakers efforts to rebuild (and make for a happy Kobe Bryant).  

Lastly, the Lakers got to essentially hold a season-long tryout to evaluate and work with their bargain bin ballers.  While it could be argued that no true diamonds were found there were still some pleasant surprises, such as Nick "Swaggy P" Young, who quickly won the hearts of LA with his infectious smile and ability to make difficult shots.  Jordan Farmar returned like the prodigal son, showing a maturity to his game that wasn't there when he last wore the Golden Armor.  Kendall Marshall had his moments of brilliance, becoming the best point guard the Lakers have poached from the Phoenix Suns (looking at you, Steve Nash).

While there were plenty of bumps and bruises (and tibial plateau fractures) along the way, now that the dust has settled the Lakers have the luxury of looking over their cadre of misfits to determine which ones have proved themselves worthy of returning next season as part of the long term plan.  They won't be stars but hopefully some of them can take on a Michael Cooper-type role by filling a need that makes the team better as a whole.

The rest will unfortunately be discarded into the wastelands of the “Samaki Walker” chapter of the Lakers history book with the rest of the players who just never panned out.  It's a dubious distinction, but certainly preferable to finding oneself in the Smush Parker chapter instead.   

***The Smush chapter is something like the 8th level of Dante’s Inferno (i.e. Hell), which hosts , among other things, frauds and thieves.  Joining Smush there are JR Rider, Dwight Howard, Sam Bowie, Travis Knight, Kwame Brown (who is probably crying) and Steve Nash has one foot in the door.  Who occupies the 9th (and final) level you ask?  Why the traitorous David Stern and his “basketball reasons”, of course.






 Before we break down who should stay and who should go here are the factors that had to be considered in making these thumbs up/thumbs down, gladiator-esque decisions:

1.       Bidding wars: As free agents there will be competition for their services.  While it’s likely that Marshon Brooks won’t have many suitors the same can’t be said for Nick Young and Jodie Meeks.  That matters, as competition drives price tags higher and gives the Lakers less cap room to sign other players with.

2.       Age: A player like Chris Kaman, who doesn’t have many years left, may take a lesser offer from a title contending team.  In order to stay in LA he may want substantially more than what other teams would offer him.  Spending more on role players= bad for the Lakers.

3.       Positional scarcity: Yes, the Lakers need help just about everywhere on the court (and in the coaches chair).  However, if they  add a point guard like Eric Bledsoe as a free agent then the resigning of Jordan Farmar doesn't make sense.  Kendall Marshall is already on a cheap contract as a backup point guard and Steve Nash may occasionally get wheeled onto the court (to remind us all that Father Time is undefeated), so Farmar would be superfluous.  We won't put too much stock into that here but when free agency goes live on July 1st who the Lakers sign (or don't sign) could be the biggest determining factor in deciding which members of last season's squad return. 

4.       Length of the contract: The longer the deal the more risk for the team and the less cap space the Lakers have in the future to go after a star.  It takes superstar players to win championships in the NBA and missing out on one because Wesley Johnson got an extra year on his deal simply isn’t a risk the Lakers can take.
 
Now that the factors being used to make these decisions are out of the way let’s get down to the nitty gritty. 
 
Samaki Walkers ( Let it go, let it gooooo…)

MarShon Brooks: MarSwag came over last season as part of the Steve Blake /Kent Bazemore trade with Golden State.  Brooks played precisely one good game while employed by the Lakers: a 23 point, 4 assist outing against the Sacramento Kings which prompted Kent Bazemore to declare that Brooks reminded him a little of Kobe.  MarShon responded by failing to score in double digits again for the remainder of the season.  

 My personal belief is that after being compared to KB24 MarShon was on the receiving end of a Kobe death stare (the horribly frightening image to the left), which accounts for his poor play after that.  You don’t challenge Kobe.  Ever. 
      











Wesley Johnson- Johnson seems to have everything that the Lakers would be looking for in a small forward: athleticism, solid outside shooting, length, and above-average defense.  He unfortunately also has what scouts like to call a weak “motor”, in other words he doesn’t play that hard.  He can be frustrating to watch as he looks like a player who should be better than he is.  It's time for the Lakers to move on and focus on other small forwards. 

Chris Kaman: Chris Kaman (aka Captain Caveman) proved last year that he can still be a solid offensive center.  He showed flashes of brilliance when teamed with Pau Gasol and even dominated a few games as the lone big man on the floor.  Unfortunately Chris played for Mike D’Antoni, who is allergic to post play and certainly doesn’t tolerate having two bigs on the floor at once.  With that being the case, Kaman spent large portions of the season glued to (or laying down on) the bench.  While he would be a reliable backup there has just been too much bad blood for Chris to stay in LA.



Don't worry ma'am, Chris is still alive.  D'Antoni is only killing his spirit, not his body. 






Jodie Meeks: This one hurts.  Jodie has grown by leaps and bounds as a Laker.  He has always been a solid defender and excellent shooter but last season he took things to a whole new level.  From the 12/13 to 13/14 seasons he increased his field goal percentage from 39% to 46% and his three point percentage from 36% to 40%.  What’s truly remarkable though is that he did this while playing a much larger role in the offense (sometimes even being forced into playing point guard) and almost doubling his number of shot attempts.  Nearly every time a player increases their shot attempts and takes on additional responsibilities on offense their field goal percentage drops.  Somehow Jodie bucked that trend in a big way.  That’s an incredibly impressive feat and he is a player that the Lakers could absolutely use next year.  The problem?  Other teams have noticed his improvement too.  Nearly every team wants to add shooters, and Jodie is near the top of the list of quality bombers available this year.  While I would love for the Lakers to keep him I think they will simply get outbid while they go after Melo, Bosh, LeBron, Bledsoe, etc.  As impressive as Jodie has been he simply isn’t worth getting into a bidding war over and potentially missing a shot at a star as a result. 

Michael Coopers (Keep em' around)

The Lakers couldn't (or shouldn't) bring back all of these guys, but here are the ones they should at least consider retaining as well as the size and length of the contract they should offer.  Of course, it goes without saying that should LeBron, Melo, or any other star decide to come to LA then all bets are off for this group. 
 
Xavier Henry: Xavier Henry is essentially Wesley Johnson’s doppleganger.  Everything Wesley is Xavier isn’t and vice versa.  Xavier isn’t a great shooter from outside but he attacks the rim relentlessly, plays physical defense, and has a motor that never stops.  Unfortunately Xavier spent a decent amount of time on the injured list last year but that can work in the Lakers favor as he isn’t likely to be in high demand.  When he was on the floor he was an emotional leader for the Lakers and a pest on the defensive end.  He’s also capable of backing up both the SG and SF positions and is a solid replacement if Jodie Meeks or Nick Young leave in free agency.  If he can be had on a 1-2 year minimum contract (2nd year team option) he would be an absolute steal.

Kent Bazemore:  Essentially everything said about Xavier could be said about Bazemore as well, except Kent is more athletic while Xavier is stronger and absorbs contact better.  Aside from that they are very similar players.  Offer them the same contract and whichever one signs first gets the spot. 

Pau Gasol: Gasol has been unfairly vilified by Laker fans over the past few seasons.  Sure his prime is long gone but he’s still a better big than nearly everyone on the free agent market aside from Greg Monroe (restricted) and Chris Bosh (velociraptor lookalike).  Pau is due a proper send off from the Lakers after battling alongside Kobe for all of these years.  There is something that just seems right about Gasol getting a 2 year deal so he and Kobe can finish their careers together.  In addition the Lakers couldn't ask for a better mentor for Julius Randle.  A  2 year/20 million deal should get it done.

Ryan Kelly: Kelly is the type of player who looks better than he really is in Mike D’Antoni’s offense (for stretch 4s Mike D’Antoni’s offense is like a legal steroid).  With that in mind however look at everything Kelly dealt with last season: he missed training camp due to offseason foot surgery, was pushed into the starting lineup due to what can only be described as a plague of injuries, and then spent the remainder of the season watching his playing time and role change without warning.  In spite of all this Kelly thrived and even grew as a player, adding a surprising number of blocks to his defensive numbers as the season went on.  His mental toughness and resiliency (made more impressive given the fact he is a rookie) should outweigh the effect D’Antoni had on his stats.  It’s time to lock up Kelly now at a low number before he prices himself out of the Lakers range next season.  Give him a 3 year/3 million deal.

Jordan Farmar: Farmar isn’t the best point guard out there but like Xavier he has a high motor and competes each and every night.  The injury bug wasn’t kind to him (nor anyone else on the squad) but when he was on the floor Jordan showed an ability to knock down big shots that he didn’t have during his last stint in LA.  While he sees himself as a starter, the Lakers would be best suited to let Farmar and Kendall Marshall duke it out for the lion’s share of the backup point guard minutes.  Offer him a 2 year/3 million deal.

Jordan Hill: Hill was yet another Laker big that found himself being misused in Mike D’Antoni’s offense.  Whenever he was given the opportunity though Hill shined, providing hustle, defense, rim protection, rebounding, and he even showed off an expanding offensive repertoire.  Laker fans should be giddy about the bash brothers-style havoc that Julius Randle and Jordan could unleash on the boards together.  Offer the same deal he got last time: 2 years/8 million

***Mitch Kupchak should consider sealing the deal with Hill by giving him a framed copy of Mike D’Antoni’s voided contract with a plaque on it that reads “He can’t hurt you anymore”.  Worth a shot.

Nick Young: The argument could be made that Swaggy P was the heart and soul of the Lakers last season.  He posted career numbers (although they were nearly identical to his stats a few years ago in Washington) and provided a major spark off the bench.  He was a Laker fan growing up and has connected with the fan base in a way that few players have.  That said, how much money can a one-dimensional scorer off the bench truly command?  He will likely have better offers out there but hopefully a 3 year/ 11 million offer will be enough to keep him home.

Without a doubt the Lakers have a busy offseason in front of them.  It’s time to find out what the front office is made of.  They certainly can’t afford any mistakes; they have used up all of those over the last two seasons.  Free agency starts at midnight on July 1st and it promises to be a wild ride.  


Julius Randle: Laker

Here's a fantastic video from LakersNation highlighting the newest Laker, Julius Randle.  You really get a feel for just what a beast he is in the paint.  It's going to be fun watching a guy who puts forth that much effort on the interior.  Imagine if the Lakers are able to re-sign Jordan Hill in free agency!  How many offensive boards would a Randle/Hill duo average?  All of them.

Friday, June 27, 2014

Welcome Julius Randle, Now What?



The 2014 NBA Draft has come and gone and after months of speculation the Lakers were able to select Kentucky PF Julius Randle with the 7th pick.  They also bought the 46th pick in the draft in order to select combo guard Jordan Clarkson out of Missouri, who seems to be the modern type of guard the Lakers need: athletic, long, and versatile.  Now we just need to find out if he can play basketball at the NBA level, but he will get every opportunity to prove that he can during summer league and likely on the Lakers preseason roster. 

Randle, on the other hand, is more of a throw-back player.  In the modern NBA the power forward spot has shifted from the low-post banger style to a more Nowitzki-esque one.   Much of the “power” has been removed from the position in favor of long-range shooting, passing, ball handling, and rim protection.  Even the Celtics, who thrived on two-post offenses historically, have brought in bigs who can shoot from the outside like Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger.



***side note: I hate that the Celtics drafted Marcus Smart, if only because for the next 5 years we will be subjected to Boston fans pronouncing it Mahcus Smaht.  Like nails on a chalkboard.







The NBA is largely a copycat league, and the success of the Phoenix Suns “Seven Seconds or Less” system in the mid-late 2000s has ushered in a new era of quick hitting offense, lots of possessions, and of course, tons of threes.  In their system Shawn Marion, who everyone (including himself) thought was a small forward, took over the power forward role and used his quickness and athleticism to leave the lumbering 4s of the previous era in the dust.  No one expected the Suns to be successful using this model and yet they thrived, causing a tectonic shift in how NBA offenses and defenses operate. 

In the years since we have seen several players follow in Marion’s footsteps by sliding down a position to create a faster pace and put more emphasis on shooting and scoring in transition.  Most notably, Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James, who previously saw the majority of their minutes at small forward, have begun to almost exclusively play power forward.  Chris Bosh, solely a power forward for the majority of his time in the league, suddenly found himself thrust in to the center role.  Moreover, Bosh adapted to playing center not by working on his post moves but instead by adding the three point shot to his game, thus forcing the opposing team’s best rim protector away from the basket.  Again, the shift towards speed and shooting over size and strength has not been subtle.

Even the NBA champion San Antonio Spurs saw their offense beautifully come together when they inserted versatile big man Boris Diaw into the lineup, benefitting from his long-range shooting and passing over Tiago Splitter’s bruising interior play.

So where does Julius Randle fit into the modern NBA?  He does come off as something of a dinosaur, with a game reminiscent of days gone by rather than a step towards the future.  It’s like Charles Barkley playing in Kevin Love and Dirk Nowitzki’s NBA .  It sounds *Barkley voice* turrible, but being the oddity isn’t always bad thing.  Going against the grain can and has led to success in the past, after all most experts were extremely critical when they heard of Phoenix’s plan to run and gun, and today nearly every team in the league is using at least some facets of their offense. 

If Randle is successful in his quest to punish teams down low with his size and strength then we could see a push back towards the use of a more traditional two-post offense.  Teams planning on going small will be brutalized by Randle’s aggressive brand of bully ball. Let’s not forget the success that the Memphis Grizzlies have had with their bruising interior tandem of Marc Gasol and the man that Julius Randle is considered a clone of, Zach Randolph.  Yes, that’s the same Marc Gasol who will be a free agent in just one more season and likely a target of the Lakers. 

***sn: How angry would Memphis fans be if the Lakers stole the other Gasol from them too?  It would be a torches and pitchforks –level event for sure.

Of course changing the flow of the NBA river is a lot to put on a 19 year-old rookie, and he will have his struggles.  But maybe, just maybe, the Lakers are on to something with this Randle pick.  When everyone else is getting faster the Lakers made an effort to get stronger and more physical.  It’s a gamble, but the late, great Dr. Jerry Buss was a gambler and because of him taking risks is in the team’s DNA.
  
The question on every Laker fan’s mind is what next?  Randle alone isn’t going to lead the Purple and Gold back to the promised land but his selection does give us an interesting look into the Lakers strategy heading into free agency.  With only Kobe Bryant, Randle, Robert Sacre, the corpse of Steve Nash and likely Kendall Marshall on the roster, GM Mitch Kupchak has a lot of work to do in free agency in order to get the good guys back to the playoffs.  Most specifically, he needs to target players that are going to mesh well with Kobe and Randle, who could end up being the two most impactful players on the roster next season.

The Lakers depth chart currently looks like this:

PG: Marshall/Nash
SG: Bryant
SF:
PF: Randle
C: Sacre

In other words:




*Hear that?  Yep, it's silence.  Not even crickets.










We can assume that the Lakers are going to be looking for two kinds of players: long term options that they think will be part of the future (thus getting longer deals) and short term, cheap contract players that can be had on one or two year deals and will help preserve cap space. 

One thing to consider is that this year’s free agent crop is not particularly deep, a fact Mitch Kupchak acknowledged last night after the draft.  If the Lakers aren’t able to sign their long-term targets expect them to focus instead on one or two year deals with band-aid players. 


Let’s take a look at which players the Lakers should target and determine whether they fall into the long term or short term category, as well as what kind of contract each player should get.
Lakers targets:

Eric Bledsoe (R)- Bledsoe is the model for what kind of point guard the Lakers should be looking for.  He has tremendous athletic ability, is a lock-down defender, and isn’t afraid of the big moment.  With Randle at the four the Lakers will likely be a little light on rim protection and Bledsoe would go a long ways towards helping keep opposing guards out of the paint.  Unfortunately he is a restricted free agent but if he can be pried loose from the Suns he is a Long Term player all the way.  4 years/48 million

 Marcin Gortat- Marcin Gortat is a solid if unspectacular center but is the exactly the type of player that would work well with Randle.  He’s a good rebounder and rim protector (9.5 rebounds, 1.5 blocks) with just enough of an offensive game to keep defenses honest.  He’s been a big part of Washington’s recent success so he may require more money than the Lakers are willing to pay.  He’s also already 30 years old, so while he would be a nice guy to add for the next couple of years he isn’t someone who can be counted on to grow with Julius, and as such is a Short Term prospect.  2 Years/20 million

Lance Stephenson- Stephenson is a mere 23 years old and made tremendous progress last season on both the offensive and defensive end.  He can handle the ball, attack the basket, stretch the floor, and play pesky enough defense to get under just about anyone’s skin.  He’s truly one of the most versatile players in the league and his skills suggest that he could be a future star.  Unfortunately, all that potential is attached to the tempestuous brain of Lance Stephenson.  While Lance is known as a bit of a knuckle head and has had plenty of off-court issues his talent may be worth the risk.  Kobe’s iron fist would either alienate Stephenson or mold him into a versatile basketball monster.  Given Kobe’s success in handling Metta World Peace I’m inclined to think it will be the latter, making Stephenson a terrific Long Term player. 4 years/44 million

Ed Davis- Davis is exactly the kind of player that the Lakers have been targeting recently: young with talent and upside but didn’t pan out in his first few stops in the NBA.  While he hasn’t lived up to the hype he had after being taken #13 overall by Toronto in the 2010 draft he still has the potential to put it all together.  With the Grizzlies just committing to a contract extension with Zach Randolph one has to imagine that Ed would be excited to come LA where playing time will be a bit easier to come by.  He is still unproven so he’s a Short Term add for now, but could blossom into a keeper. 2 years/6 million

LeBron James-  Yeah realistically this isn’t going to happen, but the Lakers have cap space and James is a free agent so his name has to be mentioned here.  The only chance of getting LeBron to Laker Land would be to have enough cap space to sign him as well as one of his buddies, which would require both him and his side kick to take a fairly massive pay cut.  These days he plays the same position as Randle (PF) but it doesn’t really matter.  If he wants to come to LA you sign him and work out the fit later.  Definitely a Long Term add.  4 years/as much as he wants.

Carmelo Anthony- If Carmelo ends up in LA it’s likely that LeBron is there as well, because frankly there are better fits for both Melo (cough cough Bulls) and the Lakers.  While Carmelo is a very talented scorer he is on the wrong side of 30 and without another big name to team up with him and Kobe the Lakers won’t be contending anytime soon.  That said, if the nearly impossible happens and Melo and James decide to don the Golden Armor he is a Long Term add.  4 years/whatever LeBron doesn’t take

***SN- I think I speak for most Lakers fans when I say titles are titles and you can’t pass up the opportunity to contend, but man, James probably has more ill-will amongst the Laker fan base than anyone else in the league.  Sure, there are thousands of stories that involve the villain finding redemption by joining the hero but this situation seems closer to when Nikita Khruschev visited Disneyland.  Americans were debating how to welcome him to the park: be polite and diplomatic or beat the crap out of him while singing America the Beautiful.  In the end Disneyland nixed the visit because there was so much tension in the air.  Everyone was afraid something bad might happen if he showed up, which made sense because the Cold War was still pretty damn cold at that point (this was pre-Rocky 4,so Sylvester Stallone hadn't taught us all how to get along yet).  That’s LeBron in LA, it could be awesome but there is so much ill-will built up that if it doesn't all go according to plan it could go south very, very fast.






Mickey and a few thousand of his closest red-white-and blue American friends wanted to meet you too, comrade. 






Khris Humphries- The former Mr. Kardashian may not be a favorite of reality TV fans but he’s a serviceable NBA big man on the court.  When given minutes he is a nightly double-double threat who excels on the boards and offensively lives on the mid-range jumper.  He isn’t going to move the needle much in terms of wins and losses but the Lakers certainly could do worse in shoring up their front line.  He’s definitely a Short Term player though.  1 year/3 million

Isaiah Thomas (R)- Thomas had a breakout season with Sacramento, and while he is a restricted free agent who the Kings appear to be intent on bringing back Isiah grew up a Lakers fan and dreams of getting a contract from them.  His size (5’9’) limits his positive impact on the defensive end but on offense he is a firecracker that can get hot and nearly win games by himself.  His youth and passion for the Lakers would be a welcome addition, although the Kings would likely match any offer the Lakers would be comfortable presenting.  If he can break free from Sacramento though he would be a Long Term add.  3 years /28 million

PJ Tucker (R)- Tucker isn’t the most skilled NBA player but he makes a living on being a hustle superstar and playing sturdy defense.  Every team needs this kind of glue guy and he would quickly endear himself to the Laker faithful.  He’s restricted and likely to stay in Phoenix but if the Suns find themselves making some big moves and thus running out of cap space it’s possible that he might be available as a Short Term add.  2 years/4 million

Darren Collison- Collison recently opted out of a 1.9 million dollar payday from the Clippers and will be looking for more money and years.  While he may end up returning to the other LA team he would be a steady point guard for the Lakers to add.  He has shown in the past he has the ability to be a starting-caliber point guard, although he hasn’t done so consistently.  With Steve Nash likely to spend more time on the injured list next season than on the court Collison could be a relatively cheap young player to take the reins for a few seasons.  Given his up and down play over his career thus far though he would be a Short Term add.  2 years/8 million

While the free agent crop isn’t very plentiful this year there are still a few players that can be had to help round out the roster.  The Lakers need a bit of everything and are in no position to contend next season but still seem determined to go after the big fish anyway.  If nothing else it should be an exciting free agent season for LA. 

I’ll be back soon to examine which free agents from last year’s squad (which was just about the entire team) should be brought back as well as which free agents the Lakers need to stay away from.